ISIS predicted in 2003

[WinterHold]

It's not stupid as much as it is 100% accurate to scary levels. The only thing they didn't predict is the insane spread of ISIS, worldwide.

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They guessed that something like this will happen. Nobody can make accurate predictions in politics because it is a low validity environment(it has to many variables to be predicted by us).

Iraq's situation was different; the Iraqi people were dying from hunger due to the American siege before the invasion, the war had no cause; no reason. American soldiers were literally assuming the role of mercenaries.

Terrorism is the shock wave that will be produced after you create so many orphans.

[notimportant1234]

It's not stupid as much as it is 100% accurate to scary levels. The only thing they didn't predict is the insane spread of ISIS, worldwide.

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They guessed that something like this will happen. Nobody can make accurate predictions in politics because it is a low validity environment(it has to many variables to be predicted by us).

Iraq's situation was different; the Iraqi people were dying from hunger due to the American siege before the invasion, the war had no cause; no reason. American soldiers were literally assuming the role of mercenaries.

Terrorism is the shock wave that will be produced after you create so many orphans.

This is still irelevant to the point. You can't say that they predicted this, they guessed. There are to many variables, we can't predict the weather accurately for a week and you think that we can predict a event in our social environment years before it happened.

[WinterHold]

It's not stupid as much as it is 100% accurate to scary levels. The only thing they didn't predict is the insane spread of ISIS, worldwide.

---

Iraq's situation was different; the Iraqi people were dying from hunger due to the American siege before the invasion, the war had no cause; no reason. American soldiers were literally assuming the role of mercenaries.

Terrorism is the shock wave that will be produced after you create so many orphans.

This is still irelevant to the point. You can't say that they predicted this, they guessed. There are to many variables, we can't predict the weather accurately for a week and you think that we can predict a event in our social environment years before it happened.

The definition of "predict" is:

predict
/prɪˈdɪkt/
verb
verb: predict; 3rd person present: predicts; past tense: predicted; past participle: predicted; gerund or present participle: predicting
say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something.

synonyms:forecast, foretell, foresee, prophesy, divine, prognosticate, anticipate, see, say, tell in advance, project, speculate, envision, envisage, imagine, picture, estimate, conjecture, guess, hazard a guess;
archaicaugur, previse, presage, foreshow;
archaicspae;
rarevaticinate, auspicate
"it is difficult to predict what the outcome will be"

So they pretty much "predicted" ISIS. It's very relevant to the point; it's actually the whole point.
"Guess" is a synonym for predict. So what's your point? what is your objection on the use of "predict"; which is a synonym for "guess"??

What was your point? we can always "guess/predict" some future events to some degree, the gift of the "foresight" increases the more we have experience in life, or we have knowledge to build upon.
The world is full of "foresight centers" that presidents and politicians use to "foresee/predict" the consequence of their actions.

[Angrboda]

This is still irelevant to the point. You can't say that they predicted this, they guessed. There are to many variables, we can't predict the weather accurately for a week and you think that we can predict a event in our social environment years before it happened.

The definition of "predict" is:

predict
/prɪˈdɪkt/
verb
verb: predict; 3rd person present: predicts; past tense: predicted; past participle: predicted; gerund or present participle: predicting
say or estimate that (a specified thing) will happen in the future or will be a consequence of something.

synonyms:forecast, foretell, foresee, prophesy, divine, prognosticate, anticipate, see, say, tell in advance, project, speculate, envision, envisage, imagine, picture, estimate, conjecture, guess, hazard a guess;
archaicaugur, previse, presage, foreshow;
archaicspae;
rarevaticinate, auspicate
"it is difficult to predict what the outcome will be"

So they pretty much "predicted" ISIS. It's very relevant to the point; it's actually the whole point.
"Guess" is a synonym for predict. So what's your point? what is your objection on the use of "predict"; which is a synonym for "guess"??

What was your point? we can always "guess/predict" some future events to some degree, the gift of the "foresight" increases the more we have experience in life, or we have knowledge to build upon.
The world is full of "foresight centers" that presidents and politicians use to "foresee/predict" the consequence of their actions.

One has to ask what your point is if one could guess that ISIS would develop based on reasonable expectations about events?

[WinterHold]

The definition of "predict" is:


So they pretty much "predicted" ISIS. It's very relevant to the point; it's actually the whole point.
"Guess" is a synonym for predict. So what's your point? what is your objection on the use of "predict"; which is a synonym for "guess"??

What was your point? we can always "guess/predict" some future events to some degree, the gift of the "foresight" increases the more we have experience in life, or we have knowledge to build upon.
The world is full of "foresight centers" that presidents and politicians use to "foresee/predict" the consequence of their actions.

One has to ask what your point is if one could guess that ISIS would develop based on reasonable expectations about events?

My implicit point is that the American politics is very rotten to the degree of ignoring forecast centers around the world, and its gets even more rotten when you consider the insane blame-dodging of many American politicians.

Look what happened as a result; Trump ruled and Saudi Araba's voice became stronger than most politicians in the U.S, the elections which were almost "holy" are proved to be rigged by Russia, Saudies are killing American teenagers in broad day light inside the U.S and escape... It is what I said in another topic: feces are being thrown at the U.S constitution, and dejavus about the fall of Rome come to the mind.

[Angrboda]

Politics and politicians are corrupt. News at eleven. In other news: water wet.

When I asked what your point was, I was asking for something more significant than this pablum. That power corrupts is a truth as old as the world. If you're simply here to repeat well-worn verities and point fingers, then I must confess I have little interest in what you have to say.

[notimportant1234]

My reasoning was that in order for you to know that something will happen you need to have some sort of algorithm that will take into account all the variables in the respective environment.
I'm pretty sure that they didn't have this so it is irrelevant that they were throwing opinions about future events. You are deceiving yourself if you think that ISIS could have been predicted.
In hand-sight everything looks simple.

BTW I think that there should be a distinction betwen drawing conclusions about future events (predicting) and spouting random things that may happen( guessing).