Newcomb's Paradox

[GrandizerII]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really, really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

If you choose Box A, there is an absolute certainty that you net $1000 dollars.

If you chose box B, you will net either $0 or $1 000 000.

If you choose both, your net is either $0, $1 000 000 or $1 001 000.

In two out of three scenarios, you risk ending up with nothing.

For gamblers, the likely option is to choose both. For those looking for a sure thing, choose A.

Boru

[brewer]

Can I just rob the predictor? Obviously he/it didn't need the money to begin with.

[zebo-the-fat]

whatever you pick you will lose nothing

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I misread the OP - choosing Box A only is not an option. In that case, choosing both boxes is a marginally better option, as you’re guaranteed at least $1000. Choosing Box B only gives you a 50% chance of walking away with bupkis.

Boru

[Silver]

I'm not choosing a box.

[Anomalocaris]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least)
at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.

How good?

[Anomalocaris]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.

I can defeat any amount of goodness in his ability to predict my decision by randomizing my decision,   So if he is really good at predicting my decisions, he would predict I would decide to make a random decision that he can not predict except by random chance.

[Angrboda]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.

I can defeat any amount of goodness in his ability to predict my decision by randomizing my decision,   So if he is really good at predicting my decisions, he would predict I would decide to make a random decision that he can not predict except by random chance.

What are you going to use as a source of randomness and was your choice of that source random?

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_paradox

A lot of you would know about this already. The interesting thing about this puzzle is that even though it seems like there is a very clear correct answer here, there are a lot of people who insist that's not correct ... and I'm taking philosophers, mathematicians, game theorists, and not just laypeople. So I guess that's really where the "paradox" lies.

Anyway, here's the problem to consider:

You have two boxes in front of you. Behind these two boxes is the Predictor, some super-advanced being who is (at the very least) really really good at predicting beforehand what you would do.

Box A is transparent and contains $1000.
Box B is opaque and either contains $0 or $1000000

You have two options here:

Either choose both Box A and Box B, or
Choose Box B only

The Predictor has already predicted what option you would go for:
If they predicted you would choose both boxes, then Box B will contain $0.
If they predicted you would choose Box B only, then Box B will contain $1000000

Which option do you go for?

I suspect most of us here would choose Box B only, but it would be interesting to hear the different perspectives on this problem.

I can defeat any amount of goodness in his ability to predict my decision by randomizing my decision,   So if he is really good at predicting my decisions, he would predict I would decide to make a random decision that he can not predict except by random chance.

According to the conundrum, the Predictor knows, without possibility of error, which choice you will make. Randomness is not a factor.

When answering a paradox, the respondents are not permitted to add provisos of their own.

Boru