Palestine

[WinterHold]

Israel has nothing to fear, because the world's top nuclear power is covering for it !

The trouble is that the US military has suffered too many humiliating defeats. People are losing their fear of it.

Remember that the US left Lebanon in defeat. It completely lost in Afghanistan. The side it's backing in Ukraine is losing badly, and the Pentagon recently said that supplying weapons to Zelensky is "reaching the end of its rope." 

So the US doesn't look as invincible as it maybe once did. If Israel was beaten and the US humiliated again, the news would just shift its focus to some other crisis (probably China) and people would get all gung ho about the next thing.

I get you, the current government needs a war it can win, even if the enemy was a militia stranded in a strip of land. After all, Biden is in it to make the headlines back home,

[WinterHold]

WW3 officially started.

Nice to be in the country that's 2-0 on world wars.

In world wars; the unexpected happen. Empires fall -like the British Empire. the Ottoman Empire-, sometimes they get invaded even and lose their colonies.

Nobody knows the future, but the alliance of Gog-Magog has the U.S in the crosshairs.


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[Rev. Rye]

The trouble is that the US military has suffered too many humiliating defeats. People are losing their fear of it.

Remember that the US left Lebanon in defeat. It completely lost in Afghanistan. The side it's backing in Ukraine is losing badly, and the Pentagon recently said that supplying weapons to Zelensky is "reaching the end of its rope." 

So the US doesn't look as invincible as it maybe once did. If Israel was beaten and the US humiliated again, the news would just shift its focus to some other crisis (probably China) and people would get all gung ho about the next thing.

I get you, the current government needs a war it can win, even if the enemy was a militia stranded in a strip of land. After all, Biden is in it to make the headlines back home,

If the enemy is a guerrilla force that's managed to convince the surrounding population that it's somehow the lesser evil, that's EXACTLY the sort of enemy that keeps beating the US military. And it's not even because it's got Allah on its side or anything like that (because the Viet Cong did the same fucking thing and they sure as shit weren't Muslim), but because every time you cut the head off this hydra, a couple new ones are going to pop up in its place.

[FrustratedFool]

With such hydras, it seems the best plausible strategy is to keep them from growing too large whilst waiting for them to die from other causes.

[Deesse23]

I get you, the current government needs a war it can win, even if the enemy was a militia stranded in a strip of land. After all, Biden is in it to make the headlines back home,

If the enemy is a guerrilla force that's managed to convince the surrounding population that it's somehow the lesser evil, that's EXACTLY the sort of enemy that keeps beating the US military. And it's not even because it's got Allah on its side or anything like that (because the Viet Cong did the same fucking thing and they sure as shit weren't Muslim), but because every time you cut the head off this hydra, a couple new ones are going to pop up in its place.

Dayum, how can someone like Winter can be so ignorant?

The issue with the USA (and EVERY other country) and its PROFESSIONAL army vs guerillas like in Vietnam, Afghanistan, ISIS, Al Quaida, etc, is this:

A war can be won by either side, or can be a kind of "indecisive draw". Those are the three options, in general.

The regular (external/invading) army only wins when it actually wins.
The (domestic) guerillia wins as long as it does not lose.*

In other words: Out of three options (army win, guerilla win or "draw") , the guerilla actually wins in two of three cases.

The USA werent technicall beaten in Afghanistan (as well as the Red Army back in the 80s) or anywhere else** . But they could not win either. So they withdrew (or were forced to withdraw if you like that phrase better), avoidong to waste money or resoures on something that never will give any return on the investment.

Its really fucking painful to have to read someone like Winter, having the comprehension and insight of a 3y old, pontificating about the nature of international conflicts. Its really painful.


*as evidenced in Vietnam, the guerilla factually, militarily can "lose" (the Tet offensive was DEVASTATING to the Vietcong), but still can win, because it keeps the WILL to fight. Same for Hannibal and the Romans. Rome was defeated after Cannae, period. A large part of the nobility was killed, and the bottom of the barrel for recruiting new legions was reached. But Rome refused to acknowledge/accept this. It outlasted Carthages will to support Hannibal.

**Korea maybe being an exception. But Kim Il Sung was supported by the Chinese army

[Deesse23]

With such hydras, it seems the best plausible strategy is to keep them from growing too large whilst waiting for them to die from other causes.

That does not work. You cant forcefully prevent guerillas (or terrorist organisations: Different term, but same mechanics) from recruiting from the local population. The only way to "beat" such forces is to properly starve them off, by cutting them off from public support of the large population. And that you can only do by winning the populations mind and support. And thats the cardinal mistake the US is doing in the near and middle east: Its constantly alienating (or does not give a f.ck) the locals. It is supporting opressive regimes like in Iran (Shah) or Saudi Arabia, based on short sighted goals like oil etc. not being really worth the cost. People like Bismarck are probably still rotating in their graves about this.

A proper (imho) appraoch of someone like the US would be to first promot secularisation (yeah, fuck you Winter) of these countrees. Dont support extrmists and fanatics, defund them, fight them. Of course the US needs to get rid of its own heavy religious influence in its own government (the secular constitution notwithstanding, thats the bitter irony). Without having to please its own evangelical fundamentalists, its not pressured to support Israel, a country that evidently has its own extremists to please and own war crimes it regularly commits. It also need to stop supporting fundamentalists (*cough* Afghanistan in the 80s, Saudi arabia *cough*) of "opposing" religious groups for purley ulterior motives

[FrustratedFool]

With such hydras, it seems the best plausible strategy is to keep them from growing too large whilst waiting for them to die from other causes.

That does not work. You cant forcefully prevent guerillas (or terrorist organisations: Different term, but same mechanics) from recruiting from the local population. The only way to "beat" such forces is to properly starve them off, by cutting them off from public support of the large population. And that you can only do by winning the populations mind and support. And thats the cardinal mistake the US is doing in the near and middle east: Its constantly alienating (or does not give a f.ck) the locals. It is supporting opressive regimes like in Iran (Shah) or Saudi Arabia, based on short sighted goals like oil etc. not being really worth the cost. People like Bismarck are probably still rotating in their graves about this.

A proper (imho) appraoch of someone like the US would be to first promot secularisation (yeah, fuck you Winter) of these countrees. Dont support extrmists and fanatics, defund them, fight them. Of course the US needs to get rid of its own heavy religious influence in its own government (the secular constitution notwithstanding, thats the bitter irony). Without having to please its own evangelical fundamentalists, its not pressured to support Israel, a country that evidently has its own extremists to please and own war crimes it regularly commits. It also need to stop supporting fundamentalists (*cough* Afghanistan in the 80s, Saudi arabia *cough*) of "opposing" religious groups for purley ulterior motives

Wouldn't the methods you use to beat them be the same as dying from other causes?

Keep them from becoming too powerful, and use other methods + wait for them to end.

[LinuxGal]

Nice to be in the country that's 2-0 on world wars.

In world wars; the unexpected happen. Empires fall -like the British Empire. the Ottoman Empire-, sometimes they get invaded even and lose their colonies.

Nobody knows the future, but the alliance of Gog-Magog has the U.S in the crosshairs.

Inshallah.

[Deesse23]

That does not work. You cant forcefully prevent guerillas (or terrorist organisations: Different term, but same mechanics) from recruiting from the local population. The only way to "beat" such forces is to properly starve them off, by cutting them off from public support of the large population. And that you can only do by winning the populations mind and support. And thats the cardinal mistake the US is doing in the near and middle east: Its constantly alienating (or does not give a f.ck) the locals. It is supporting opressive regimes like in Iran (Shah) or Saudi Arabia, based on short sighted goals like oil etc. not being really worth the cost. People like Bismarck are probably still rotating in their graves about this.

A proper (imho) appraoch of someone like the US would be to first promot secularisation (yeah, fuck you Winter) of these countrees. Dont support extrmists and fanatics, defund them, fight them. Of course the US needs to get rid of its own heavy religious influence in its own government (the secular constitution notwithstanding, thats the bitter irony). Without having to please its own evangelical fundamentalists, its not pressured to support Israel, a country that evidently has its own extremists to please and own war crimes it regularly commits. It also need to stop supporting fundamentalists (*cough* Afghanistan in the 80s, Saudi arabia *cough*) of "opposing" religious groups for purley ulterior motives

Wouldn't the methods you use to beat them be the same as dying from other causes?

Keep them from becoming too powerful, and use other methods + wait for them to end.

I am not sure what methods you envisioned, but anything involving force will not work preventing a part of the population filling up the ranks of terrorist organisations.
As to many other problems, the solution is: education, education, education.

[Deesse23]

Nice to be in the country that's 2-0 on world wars.

In world wars; the unexpected happen. Empires fall -like the British Empire. the Ottoman Empire-, sometimes they get invaded even and lose their colonies.

Nobody knows the future, but the alliance of Gog-Magog has the U.S in the crosshairs.


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Please put the fucking fanaticism crack pipe down.