The probability of the accuracy of probability itself? Etc.

[chatpilot]

Yeah that is exactly what I said my friend probability is not 100% accurate it's just an educated guess about what is the most likely answer.It's a high probability that since the sun rises and sets every day for the past 12 billion years it will most likely rise again tommorow.Just educated guesses based on past knowledge and experience depending on what it is you are trying to prove or disprove.

[Darwinian]

Yeah that is exactly what I said my friend probability is not 100% accurate it's just an educated guess about what is the most likely answer.It's a high probability that since the sun rises and sets every day for the past 12 billion years it will most likely rise again tommorow.Just educated guesses based on past knowledge and experience depending on what it is you are trying to prove or disprove.

Actually it's 4.5 billion years. Give or take.

Not that I'm be pedantic

[leo-rcc]

Probability is a measurement. Not a thing to be measured itself. You don't need to ask if a degree celsius is accurate, but is the temperature outside indeed 0 degrees Celsius today. You dont need to ask if a mph is accurate, but does your car drive 55 mph at the moment.

[chatpilot]

Thanks Darwinian lol 4.5 billion it is.But I was referring to the estimated age of the universe in general not the estimated age of the Earth.I was off by a billion years or so according to Wikipedia:

The universe is about 13.5 to 14 billion years old, from the Big Bang to the present. The half billion year uncertainty allows for a number of different methods of measurement to all fall "within it" and be in agreement. Certainly there may be some other estimates of the age of the universe, but this is a scientific one. It is almost universally accepted by scientists today.

Thats my fault or mental fatigue lol I was not thinking about the age of the Earth when I used the example of the sun rising and setting so thanks once again for the correction.

[Edwardo Piet]

Probability is a measurement. Not a thing to be measured itself. You don't need to ask if a degree celsius is accurate, but is the temperature outside indeed 0 degrees Celsius today. You dont need to ask if a mph is accurate, but does your car drive 55 mph at the moment.

Very interesting (and makes total sense I'm just interested in these things lol).

Thanks for clearing that up.

Intuitively that's what I believe and understand - I just didn't quite understand why exactly....

You don't need to measure measurement itself - therefore it is neither 'taken as gospel' nor does it have a probability put on itself.

I see that it doesn't really make sense to put a probability on probability itself....

Since its never the probability thats wrong - only that it is sometimes wrong when compared to - well whatever.

0.2% probability isn't wrong in itself....

But it would be almost certainly (lol ) wrong if you said that the chance the sun will come up tomorrow is 0.2% - to say the least!

Ok that's cool. My confusion is gone - at least for the now I think!! On this subject anyway - I think!

Evf

[chatpilot]

Lol Evf you have been enlightened my friend.