RE: UK to leave EU
December 9, 2016 at 4:53 am
(This post was last modified: December 9, 2016 at 4:59 am by GUBU.)
(December 7, 2016 at 8:06 pm)Bella Morte Wrote:(December 7, 2016 at 8:03 pm)Tazzycorn Wrote: Hard brexit is probably the only option at this stage, what with the UK ministers acting like spoiled babies and throwing their toys out the pram. Anything less will make the EU negotiators look weak.
And frankly the UK needs the EU, while the EU doesn't really need the UK.
[Emphasis mine]
You sure about that?
Most definitely. The UK banking sector is already planning on moving. The fisheries will be taken care of by the 120 mile rights. Agriculture is an area where the UK imports from the EU not vice versa. And industry is so laughably anaemic in the UK it couldn't survive inside the world's largest market, never mind outside (the bribe given to Nissan is so big the government refuses to give any details).
(December 8, 2016 at 7:46 am)Pandæmonium Wrote: The EU is a reciprocal supranational trading body (in it's purest form at least). It would be more accurate to say that the EU doesn't need the UK *as much* as opposed to not at all per se. But there will be supply chain and export markets directly affected even now by the uncertainty of the UK exit, both by the physical act and the surrounding unknown variables that affect it. I know, I work for a company which has a supply chain in Europe which has already seen job turnover increase as a direct result of contracting investment.
The UK is still currently the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. Removing that from direct unrestricted input into your common market will undoubtedly have an effect. The EU will probably be able to weather the storm better, due to size of it's biggest economies (France and Germany only). But you're potentially removing an economy the size of France from unrestricted free market access. I'm sorry, but there are people's jobs, businesses and pensions that rely on that economy being on the inside, both in the UK and EU.
Given how much of the UK's economy is offshore banking services (essentially moving money from A to B without paying taxes, laundering it then moving it to C) and how easy it is to move such services, the UK is fucked economically without the EU banking passports. So the best option the UK has outside EU membership is a relationship akin to the Irish English one between 1600 and 1801.
Urbs Antiqua Fuit Studiisque Asperrima Belli
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