I think the Kims have all been very rational, if cruel and ruthless. The Kims have all understood perfectly that the kim regime would never survive unless North Korea is under continuous state of siege. So each Kim have been consistent in finding every opportunity to remind everyone else in the world that North Korea needs to be put in a state of siege.

I think it's all macho bullshit, the same in Iran.

If there's any real nuclear threat, it'd be Pakistan vs India.

(January 25, 2013 at 8:11 pm)Chuck Wrote: I think the Kims have all been very rational, if cruel and ruthless. The Kims have all understood perfectly that the kim regime would never survive unless North Korea is under continuous state of siege. So each Kim have been consistent in finding every opportunity to remind everyone else in the world that North Korea needs to be put in a state of siege.

Perhaps. To me it just seems like they are stubborn and have no idea what to do next so they end up in situations like this. I see no way that announcing to the world that they want to attack the US is going to end well for them. Maybe like you say that's a way to rally the people of NK but losing aid from China is be a big problem for them. Why would you want to support your leaders if you, your family and your friends are starving?

(January 25, 2013 at 8:19 pm)Insanity x Wrote: . Why would you want to support your leaders if you, your family and your friends are starving?

Same reason why people of many countries who believe they face invasion and conquest would willingly undergo incredible privations and still rally around their leaders.

As to China, Kim knows China would not let kim fall. The west say it's because the China wouldn't want several million starving North Korean refugees flooding over the border if Kim falls. But I don't believe that is really the case. The Chinese can largely prevent the flood of refugees by engineering an orderly transition of power in North Korea. The refugee story is just a fig leaf concocted by both China and the west to deflect attention away from a rather machivelliian mutural understanding.

The mutural understanding is the Sino-American relationship is very important and there can't be allowed an open rupture.

If Kim falls the sheer wealth and economic might of South Korea will garrantee North Korea will soon be absorbed by the South unless the Chinese do something drastic to prevent it. But China can never permit South Korea to absorb North Korea because China will never allow any country that hosts American troops to extend its influence to the Chinese border. So if Kim falls, sooner or later China will invade and occupy North Korea to forstall the formation of a united Korea with strong west leaning tendencies.

If China invades North Korea no South Korean government could survive unless it were to resist with armed force a Chinese invasion of what most South Koreans regard as half of their own country. So if China invades North Korea there will be war between China and South Korea.

If there is open war between South Korea and China, American is bound by her mutural defence treaty with Korea and the need to protect her own credibility and prestige to come in on the side of South Korea, hence open rupture, quite probably open war, between the US and China.

I think by agreement, US and China decided this can't be allowed to happen, so US continues to squeeze North Korea enough for Kim to maintain a siege mentality amongst his people. The Chinese continues to prop up Kim using the charade of wanting maintain order in North Korea and keeping Koreans from flooding into China as refugees. Every now and then, the Chinese go through the charade of expressing displeasure with temporary reduction in aid if Kim throws too much of a tantrum. But China will never really squeeze kim to the point where the latter can't breath. Kim knows this.

I think I may be in over my head a bit here. I'm not entirely sure either way but its certainly an interesting idea.

(January 25, 2013 at 8:52 pm)Chuck Wrote:

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(January 25, 2013 at 8:19 pm)Insanity x Wrote: . Why would you want to support your leaders if you, your family and your friends are starving?

Same reason why people of many countries who believe they face invasion and conquest would willingly undergo incredible privations and still rally around their leaders.

As to China, Kim knows China would not let kim fall. The west say it's because the China wouldn't want several million starving North Korean refugees flooding over the border if Kim falls. But I don't believe that is really the case. The Chinese can largely prevent the flood of refugees by engineering an orderly transition of power in North Korea. The refugee story is just a fig leaf concocted by both China and the west to deflect attention away from a rather machivelliian mutural understanding.

The mutural understanding is the Sino-American relationship is very important and there can't be allowed an open rupture.

If Kim falls North Korea will fall to South Korea. But China can never permit South Korea to absorb North Korea because China will never allow any country that hosts American troops to extend its influence to the Chinese border. So if Kim falls, sooner or later China will invade and occupy North Korea for forstall an united Korea west leaning tendencies.

If China invades North Korea No South Korean government will survive if it fails to resist with armed force a Chinese invasion of what they perceive to be half of their country. So if China invades North Korea there will be war between China and South Korea.

If there is open war between South Korea and China American is bound by the need to protect her own credibility and prestige to come in on the side of South Korea, hence open rupture, quite probably open war, between the US and China.

I think by agreement, US and China decided this can't be allowed to happen, so US continues to squeeze North Korea enough for Kim to maintain a siege mentality amongst his people. The Chinese continues to prop up Kim using the charade of wanting maintain order in North Korea and keeping Koreans from flooding into China as refugees.

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This is all speculation. A war between those nations leads to the last part of the world war trilogy. China and the US both prefer trade and peace. North-Korea isn't worth the fight. Such a war would put the 9/11 attacks in a nostalgic light.

(January 25, 2013 at 9:02 pm)Dee Dee Ramone Wrote: [quote='Chuck' pid='391934' dateline='1359161522']This is all speculation. A war between those nations leads to the last part of the world war trilogy. China and the US both prefer trade and peace. North-Korea isn't worth the fight.

Both China and US prefer peace so long as core security interest is not at stake.

Trust me, China thinks keeping foreign bases away from its border to be such a core security interest that it would definitely accept any rupture with the US to fight over it. It has proven this by fighting the US in Korean war for precisely this reason. After the US landed in Inchon and started pushing North Korean forces out of South Korea and back into North Korea, China repeatedly warned Truman and McCarthur through both open and private channels to not come close to the Yalu river. McCarthur ignored it. China came into North Korea to fight the US and pushed American forces back out of North Korea. And China did this when she was much weaker in relationship to the US back in 1950 then she is now. Now that China is much stronger in relation to both the US and all other countries around her then she was in 1950, I have zero doubt China will fight again over North Korea if she perceive the chance that North Korea could come under US influence.

(January 25, 2013 at 9:13 pm)Chuck Wrote: Trust me, China thinks keeping foreign bases away from its border to be such a core security interest that it would definitely accept any rupture with the US to fight over it. It has proven this by fighting the US in Korean war for precisely this reason. After the US landed in Inchon and started pushing North Korean forces out of South Korea and back into North Korea, China repeatedly warned Truman and McCarthur through both open and private channels to not come close to the Yalu river. McCarthur ignored it. China came into North Korea to fight the US and pushed American forces back out of North Korea. And China did this when she was much weaker in relationship to the US back in 1950 then she is now. Now that China is much stronger in relation to both the US and all other countries around her then she was in 1950, I have zero doubt China will fight again over North Korea if she perceive the chance that North Korea could come under US influence.

Maybe they make a deal about the troops or whatever happens, but there's not gonna be war over North-Korea.

The Chinese War Machine is a nightmare waiting to descend upon the entire world.

(January 25, 2013 at 7:53 am)Insanity x Wrote: The secretive North Korean regime has said it is planning a nuclear test and more long-range rocket launches, aimed at what it calls its "sworn enemy", the United States.

Their nuclear weapons are not that powerful anyway. Plus, nobody believes that North Korea is even able to pilot a rocket that far.

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(January 25, 2013 at 9:02 pm)Dee Dee Ramone Wrote: This is all speculation. A war between those nations leads to the last part of the world war trilogy. China and the US both prefer trade and peace. North-Korea isn't worth the fight. Such a war would put the 9/11 attacks in a nostalgic light.

Um, no they don't. The US wilfully invaded Vietnam without real justification. More recently they did the same to Afghanistan and Iraq, and then once they invaded they even tortured the POW's, murdered the POW's AND raped them as well. Sound like a nation that prefers "trade and peace" to you?