NFL 2018 Pick'em League!

[Tiberius]

Out of interest, since we're mid-way through the season, I have added some additional columns to the spreadsheet. These won't affect the Wisdom of the Crowd, but they do follow new ways to pick winners:

1) Picks the Away Team
2) Picks the Home Team
3) Picks the Team with the Best Record

1 and 2 are pretty self explanatory. 3 compares the number of wins of each team (a tie counts as half a win), and chooses the team with the higher number. If the number is equal, it defaults to the Home team. Losses are not included as part of the calculation.

Picking the Away team every time gets you a 46 - 75 record.
Picking the Home team every time gets you a 73 - 48 record.
Picking the team with the best record each time gets you a 74 - 47 record.

Translating that to the member picks, that means that even if you pick the team with the best record, you'd still only end up in 7th place overall. It will be interesting to see how the numbers change as the season progresses.

[Angrboda]

Last year I had a formula which gave points to each team based on various factors. Being the home team and having the better record were the most important. The only other factors I considered were highest number of offensive points in the prior week.

[Ravenshire]

I'm no longer all alone in last place!

[Brian37]

I'm no longer all alone in last place!

I have absolutely zero sympathy for you considering my side bet with RUBBER DUCKY, no you DON'T WANT TO KNOW.....  But it can be summed up in one sentence..... I WANT MY MOMMY!

[Angrboda]

My general inclination not to gamble acquits itself once again.  

[Tiberius]

Last year I had a formula which gave points to each team based on various factors. Being the home team and having the better record were the most important. The only other factors I considered were highest number of offensive points in the prior week.

Only problem I see with that is teams that start off with an easy schedule would have a better record and that might cause issues mid-season against actually good teams that had a tougher schedule.

[Angrboda]

Last year I had a formula which gave points to each team based on various factors.  Being the home team and having the better record were the most important.  The only other factors I considered were highest number of offensive points in the prior week.

Only problem I see with that is teams that start off with an easy schedule would have a better record and that might cause issues mid-season against actually good teams that had a tougher schedule.

Well, I'm not using that formula this year. It likely had problem spots, but it also consistently produced good, but not great, picks.

[Joods]

I don't understand any of this math. I just pick with my gut. Evidently this year, my guts suck.

[Tiberius]

Picks this week: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

[Angrboda]

I was conflicted about the Rams v. Saints game. The Saints are the home team, but the Rams have a better record, comparable offensive numbers, a comparable defense, and a clear advantage in the turnover department. A lot of people are choosing to go with the Saints over the Rams, but I think the numbers tell a different story.