How we determine facts.

[Heywood]

To OP: In every scientific experience you have to define the circumstances in which occurs = first mistake you've made right at the start when you didn't clarify whether or not both ballss had the same probability of being picked.
Everything that follows is already not valid.

That's how science works, if the scientific method is not followed correctly you can't conclude anything.

This is an internet forum not a scientific journal. You're being nitty, instead apply the principle of charity and fill in the unstated but obvious assumptions.

[100 Years of Solitude]

To OP: In every scientific experience you have to define the circumstances in which occurs = first mistake you've made right at the start when you didn't clarify whether or not both ballss had the same probability of being picked.
Everything that follows is already not valid.

That's how science works, if the scientific method is not followed correctly you can't conclude anything.

This is an internet forum not a scientific journal. You're being nitty, instead apply the principle of charity and fill in the unstated but obvious assumptions.

This is an internet forum but science doesn't lose it's methods.
In Science, you either apply the method correctly or you don't, there's no middle ground. You can't be right and wrong at the same time.

But since you don't want to apply it, i'll do the same.

There are two balls in a box. One is red and the other is Green.
You take the two then add another 2+1=3 therefore Half-life 3 confirmed.

[Jenny A]

[quote='Jenny A' pid='838770' dateline='1420688019']
Now regarding scientific conclusions....we begin to draw conclusions the moment we observe and reflect and we do begin to make conclusions after just one observation. The number of observations just increases our confidence in those conclusions.

Actually, no. My dog makes conclusions from one or two incidents. She makes some odd conclusions, such as all men with beards are bad. So do some people, particularly children and the superstitious. Science, on the other hand, is based on not drawing unwarranted conclusions. Instead, you make a hypothesis based upon the data (which ought to be a better sample than three) and then proceed to test the hypothesis (by either designed tests or by looking for contrary evidence).

In the case of three marbles in a bag, all you have to do is look at all the marbles. Guessing about one marble at a time would be silly. Sampling hundreds of bags might tell you something about the likelihood of marble in the bags in that area.

But let's make this a more likely scientific problem. You find a bag of three marbles in a 1000 year old tomb. Two of the marbles are black, one white. What do you conclude? They had marbles. Find more bags in more tombs and you might form a hypothesis about the marbles. If there are more white marbles than black by two to one, you might conclude that black is more costly and begin to look at the resources necessary to produce white as opposed to black. If it's always two white and one black in every bag, you might look for symbolic meaning or evidence it was part of a game. And so on. You might never figure it out. But you probably would at least falsify a few hypotheses.

If you always found three marbles two white and one black and found directions for playing a game of chance with the devil involving two white and one black marble, and a mural showing the devil playing the game in another tomb, you'd be well on your way to a theory about why there are always two white and one black marbles in each tomb.

[The Grand Nudger]

Sure I can. I assign the probability to be X. I then make conclusions about X as each marble is drawn from the bag. With each draw X moves closer to 1 or to 0.

Except that it doesn't.

yes it is

*cue up the monty python argument by contradiction skit*

My conversations with you ceased to be argumentation the moment you demonstrated your willingness to insert blatent dishonesty -in place- of argumentation. What's this now, you don't like the constant assertion game, you don't think that it makes my argument? Go figure.

[Heywood]

Sure I can. I assign the probability to be X. I then make conclusions about X as each marble is drawn from the bag. With each draw X moves closer to 1 or to 0.

Except that it doesn't.

yes it does
*cue up the monty python argument by contradiction skit*

[Ryantology]

In other words, if after 100,000 marbles had all come out of the bag white, the burden of proof would be on anyone claiming that there are black marbles in there somewhere.

Except, that's never how it works in practice. In practice, a person will claim that those who say they are white are liars who hate black marbles.

[Heywood]

Actually, no. My dog makes conclusions from one or two incidents. She makes some odd conclusions, such as all men with beards are bad. So do some people, particularly children and the superstitious. Science, on the other hand, is based on not drawing unwarranted conclusions. Instead, you make a hypothesis based upon the data (which ought to be a better sample than three) and then proceed to test the hypothesis (by either designed tests or by looking for contrary evidence).

Actually yes,

Suppose a planet was observed orbiting Proxima Centauri.....let call this planet Pandora. Further suppose on that planet was observed a collections of complex and intelligent beings, bi-pedal and blue skinned. The conclusion would be that intelligent life pervades the universe. This would be the scientific consensus even though it is certainly possible that the only intelligent life in the universe is on Earth and Proxima Centauri.

---

In the case of three marbles in a bag, all you have to do is look at all the marbles. Guessing about one marble at a time would be silly. Sampling hundreds of bags might tell you something about the likelihood of marble in the bags in that area.

But let's make this a more likely scientific problem. You find a bag of three marbles in a 1000 year old tomb. Two of the marbles are black, one white. What do you conclude? They had marbles. Find more bags in more tombs and you might form a hypothesis about the marbles. If there are more white marbles than black by two to one, you might conclude that black is more costly and begin to look at the resources necessary to produce white as opposed to black. If it's always two white and one black in every bag, you might look for symbolic meaning or evidence it was part of a game. And so on. You might never figure it out. But you probably would at least falsify a few hypotheses.

If you always found three marbles two white and one black and found directions for playing a game of chance with the devil involving two white and one black marble, and a mural showing the devil playing the game in another tomb, you'd be well on your way to a theory about why there are always two white and one black marbles in each tomb.

---

I used three marbles because it made the math simple. I used drawing marbles out of bag one by one because I needed observations. The point is each observation that is consistent with a conclusion adds to the confidence that the conclusion is correct.

[FatAndFaithless]

Actually yes,

Suppose a planet was observed orbiting Proxima Centauri.....let call this planet Pandora. Further suppose on that planet was observed a collections of complex and intelligent beings, bi-pedal and blue skinned. The conclusion would be that intelligent life pervades the universe.

Wow, no..like, not even anywhere close.

[Heywood]

Sure I can. I assign the probability to be X. I then make conclusions about X as each marble is drawn from the bag. With each draw X moves closer to 1 or to 0.

Except that it doesn't.

I realize now what your error in thinking is. You keep thinking that a probability is some absolute fact. It is not. A probability is an estimate. It is a tool used by intellects to estimate how likely something is to be true or the case. As new information becomes available the estimate can change. In the example I gave, each time a marble is drawn, new information is obtained which changes the estimate of how likely it is the case that all the marbles are white.

[robvalue]

What's the point of this may I ask?