RE: Is war with China on the horizon?
November 8, 2015 at 11:51 pm
(This post was last modified: November 8, 2015 at 11:54 pm by Anomalocaris.)
Regarding war with China, I don't think it is significant possibility unless the United States is determined to force a war with China by attacking China proper.
The reason is so long as Chinese economy is growing substantially faster than that of the US, and has the prospect of maintaining a higher growth rate for sometime, it would always favor China to avoid any immediate military confrontation with minimum necessary concession in the peripheral regions like South China Sea in order to play for time. China will gain much more in terms of fundamental national strength by ensuring 5-10 years of continued economic growth and time for military buildup than she would ever lose by making minimum necessary concessions in South China Sea now.
For the United States, while United States will certainly gain a overwhelming victory in any peripheral struggle with China, such as over South China Sea, China will back down to avoid such a struggle. But the United States is not guaranteed a victory in any struggle over core Chinese interests such as defense of China proper. So the United States will not force a war with China by attacking China proper.
So China will not make it easy to start a war, and United States will not do what it takes to start a war. So there will be no war.
The reason is so long as Chinese economy is growing substantially faster than that of the US, and has the prospect of maintaining a higher growth rate for sometime, it would always favor China to avoid any immediate military confrontation with minimum necessary concession in the peripheral regions like South China Sea in order to play for time. China will gain much more in terms of fundamental national strength by ensuring 5-10 years of continued economic growth and time for military buildup than she would ever lose by making minimum necessary concessions in South China Sea now.
For the United States, while United States will certainly gain a overwhelming victory in any peripheral struggle with China, such as over South China Sea, China will back down to avoid such a struggle. But the United States is not guaranteed a victory in any struggle over core Chinese interests such as defense of China proper. So the United States will not force a war with China by attacking China proper.
So China will not make it easy to start a war, and United States will not do what it takes to start a war. So there will be no war.
