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We've Known About Climate Change for 53 years now.
#32
RE: We've Known About Climate Change for 53 years now.
(February 13, 2011 at 8:48 am)KichigaiNeko Wrote:
(February 13, 2011 at 6:54 am)ziggystardust Wrote:
(February 13, 2011 at 4:02 am)KichigaiNeko Wrote: Still goes nowhere to explain previous glaciation and 'global warming trends' prior to humanity and our love for burning fossil fuel.

Two words Milankovitch cycles

So any wonder there is apathy and confusion..... I agree with Zen (and others) we should be MORE interested in 'surviving' the change rather than making $$ out of it and spending Bazillions on talking about it.

Have you read this Wiki entry through??

Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles Wrote:Theory incomplete
The Milankovitch theory of climate change is not perfectly worked out; in particular, the greatest observed response is at the 100,000-year timescale, but the forcing is apparently small at this scale, in regard to the ice ages.[13] Various explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed, including frequency modulation[14] or various feedbacks (from carbon dioxide, cosmic rays, or from ice sheet dynamics).

Present and future conditions
Past and future of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere on the day of the summer solstice, at 65 N latitude. The green curve is with eccentricity e hypothetically set to 0. The red curve uses the actual (predicted) value of e. Blue dot is current conditions, at 2 ky ADAs mentioned above, at present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer and aphelion during the southern winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons should tend to be somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons. The relatively low eccentricity of the present orbit results in a 6.8% difference in the amount of solar radiation during summer in the two hemispheres.

Since orbital variations are predictable,[15] if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats are necessary: that anthropogenic effects may modify or even overwhelm orbital effects and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not well understood.

The amount of solar radiation (insolation) in the Northern Hemisphere at 65° N seems to be related to occurrence of an ice age. Astronomical calculations show that 65° N summer insolation should increase gradually over the next 25,000 years. A regime of eccentricity lower than the current value will last for about the next 100,000 years. Changes in northern hemisphere summer insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity ε. No declines in 65° N summer insolation, sufficient to cause a glacial period, are expected in the next 50,000 years.

An often-cited 1980 study by Imbrie and Imbrie determined that, "Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years."[16]

More recent work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.[17]

The best chances for a decline in northern hemisphere summer insolation that would be sufficient for triggering a glacial period is at 130,000 years or possibly as far out at 620,000 years

My observation still stands...we just don't know enough science about the whole 'Climate Change' and 'Anthropegenic Global Warming' relationship to give a definitive answer.

As I have stated earlier and in other threads that touch on this topic I WOULD applaud the reduction of GHG, Atmospheric Polution & Resource Depletion but to do this we need a less expensive energy source before it is adopted at the speed the "Doomsday Sayers" want.

In the interim we have debate, scepticism and confusion regarding this issue to the survival of humanity and the Bazillions of $$$ spent on 'just hot air'
"The Universe is run by the complex interweaving of three elements: energy, matter, and enlightened self-interest." G'Kar-B5
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RE: We've Known About Climate Change for 53 years now. - by KichigaiNeko - February 15, 2011 at 11:31 pm

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