RE: The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem
March 13, 2016 at 3:32 am
(This post was last modified: March 13, 2016 at 3:40 am by robvalue.)
Indeed.
Consider that your strategy is to switch no matter what. Simple as that. You choose door number 1, and you will switch to the remaining door regardless of which door the guy opens.
How often will you win?
You will win each time the speedboat was initially behind door number 2 or 3. You will lose each time it was behind door 1.
Basically, you're choosing 2 and 3 initially, and the guy gives you one of them for free, leaving the other one.
It is counter-intuitive. Very much so. But he isn't randomly giving you information, that's the point. If he could open your door as well, then the problem would be different. But he can't.
Consider that your strategy is to switch no matter what. Simple as that. You choose door number 1, and you will switch to the remaining door regardless of which door the guy opens.
How often will you win?
You will win each time the speedboat was initially behind door number 2 or 3. You will lose each time it was behind door 1.
Basically, you're choosing 2 and 3 initially, and the guy gives you one of them for free, leaving the other one.
It is counter-intuitive. Very much so. But he isn't randomly giving you information, that's the point. If he could open your door as well, then the problem would be different. But he can't.
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