The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

[robvalue]

It's a probability calculation. If you assume the prize was genuinely randomly placed, you have a 2/3 chance to win if you switch. It's that simple. I don't know what the confusion is. It's not based on observations, it's based on exact statistical analysis.

It's like saying you can pick 1-2 on a dice, or 3-6. Which would you choose? You pick 3-6, because it's more likely to win if someone isn't screwing with the dice.

EP: address what? It's meant to be randomly placed initially. That's the point. If it isn't, I'm not talking about the same game as you.

The door he opens for you, however, is not random.