The role of probability in solving the Monty Hall problem

[robvalue]

Yeah I think ep's trolling now. He's saying two things essentially: 1) the laws of probability only work if you assume that the person doesn't have a way to make them not work (I don't know what this could possibly mean... esp? X-ray vision?) and 2) it's rude of us to want him to have a better chance of winning because the comfort he gets from going with his gut is worth more than 1/3*((value of car)-(value of goat)).

I refuse to believe anyone could seriously propound those two viewpoints consecutively

I think what he's trying to say is that sometimes you'll lose even when playing the odds, so in those instances you should have not played the odds.

This makes no sense though. You're trying to guess the times when the lesser option will win, and each time you guess you're most likely to get it wrong. Because it's the lesser option.

It's like the mistake people make in poker when they base whether or not their play was right on whether the card they need gets turned over. A bad play is a bad play, but sometimes you get lucky.