What do you think of this passage?

[Ravenshire]

The point that I'm talking about is a slightly different angle ...
my point is the **cost** of the risk ...

Well, the "**cost** of the risk" of "Independence Day" type aliens is quite high as well. Doesn't make them plausible. For risk assessment to work, you have to have demonstrable evidence that a risk does indeed exist. Otherwise it's just wild speculation.

The "risk" associated with not believing in any work of fiction in roughly equivalent to the "risk" associated with not believing in any other work of fiction. Zero, because there's no evidence for any risk.

There is as much evidence for the existence of Harry Potter, Darth Vader or Frodo Baggins as there is for Odin, Athena or Yahweh.