What do you think of this passage?

[truth_seeker]

@Jörmungandr: very interesting!  that's exactly the kind of pragmatic reasoning I was referring to.

But then are they really mutually exclusive? and is it the same cost of risk?

Wikipedia | Neraka

Naraka (Sanskrit; Pali: Niraya) is a term in Buddhist cosmology[1] usually referred to in English as "hell", "hell realm", or "purgatory". The Narakas of Buddhism are closely related to diyu, the hell in Chinese mythology. A Naraka differs from the hell of Christianity in two respects: firstly, beings are not sent to Naraka as the result of a divine judgment and punishment; secondly, the length of a being's stay in a Naraka is not eternal, though it is usually very long.

A being is born into a Naraka as a direct result of his or her accumulated actions (karma) and resides there for a finite period of time until that karma has achieved its full result.[2] After his or her karma is used up, he or she will be reborn in one of the higher worlds as the result of karma that had not yet ripened.

Here is the interesting parts:

• "... firstly, beings are not sent to Naraka as the result of a divine judgment and punishment; secondly, the length of a being's stay in a Naraka is not eternal ... "
  

so based on my pragmatic risk aversion reasoning, the idea still holds. No? ... the belief above entails less cost/risk compared to other ones.