RE: Bernie Sanders - Hope?
March 17, 2016 at 2:28 am
(This post was last modified: March 17, 2016 at 2:31 am by SteelCurtain.)
(March 17, 2016 at 1:08 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:(March 16, 2016 at 4:52 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. He made major inroads on that today. He's got a 230 delegate lead, and that's without Missouri's 52 delegates, of which he gets at least 12, and then 5 more for each of the 8 districts he won.
Listening to the BBC last night, I heard a report stating that Trump would need to win 54% of the votes in the remaining primaries in order to be nominated. If that's true, and I'm unsure whether or not it is, it spells trouble: according to this report, Trump has the support of 41% of Republicans. 13% jumps don't happen much in politics, and I'm left thinking that a brokered convention is in the cards.
That's not really an accurate way to look at it, though. He has to win 53% of the remaining delegates. In some states if he wins with a simple majority, he takes all the delegates. Arizona, where he's leading, is Winner-Take-All and votes next Tuesday. With Rubio out, Trump's margins are only going to increase, and a 3 person race with Kasich barely registering outside of Ohio bodes well for Trump to win more than 53%.
I'd bet that 41% is Trump vs. three others (actually that information is from January 26th - so that still includes him polling against Carson, Rubio, Fiorina, and Christie.)
His numbers against just Cruz and Kasich are more favorable. And if Kasich drops out, it's pretty much a done deal unless Jesus pulls through for Cruz.
"There remain four irreducible objections to religious faith: that it wholly misrepresents the origins of man and the cosmos, that because of this original error it manages to combine the maximum servility with the maximum of solipsism, that it is both the result and the cause of dangerous sexual repression, and that it is ultimately grounded on wish-thinking." ~Christopher Hitchens, god is not Great
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