RE: Bernie Sanders - Hope?
March 17, 2016 at 3:17 am
(This post was last modified: March 17, 2016 at 3:38 am by Thumpalumpacus.)
(March 17, 2016 at 2:28 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: With Rubio out, Trump's margins are only going to increase, and a 3 person race with Kasich barely registering outside of Ohio bodes well for Trump to win more than 53%.
Trump's numbers can increase even if his margin shrinks. Trump can capture some of Rubio's voters -- how many is anyone's guess [though I think Rubio supporters will trend more towards Cruz (both Cuban-American, religious)] -- and still not gain as much of them as Cruz does. I agree that Kasich is hardly a factor -- it's a two-man race at this point. I suppose it depends on who Kasich is siphoning supporters from, because he at this point appears to be the spoiler.
(March 17, 2016 at 2:28 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: And if Kasich drops out, it's pretty much a done deal unless Jesus pulls through for Cruz.
I don't agree with this. Given Trump's head-to-head numbers against a Democrat candidate, his electability is in doubt. Real Clear Politics metadata shows Hilary beating Trump +6.3%, Cruz beating Clinton by +.8%, and Kasich beating Clinton by 7.4% [!]. Now, that doesn't mean that those results must have any influence in the primaries, but I'd be very surprised if the financiers of the Republican campaigns aren't looking at those numbers and thinking that they're better off giving Cruz or Kasich a better shot in a brokered convention by financing in the next few months. Trump, of course, can finance himself, but that will open him up to accusations of "buying the Presidency" in the general election, an argument that dovetails nicely with the fascist undertones he himself has spoken. If I were Robby Mook, I'd be licking my chops on this one. I could say that "Trump thinks he can buy the highest office, and can therefore do what he wants."
I don't think the Republican establishment is ready to fall behind Trump, at all. Even though Romney's blast was largely "sound and fury, signifying nothing" at the polls, I think we'll see more attacks against Trump, and from anonymous advertisers that aren't beholden to Cruz or Kasich, but more interested in stopping Trump's ongoing fracture of the party than anything else. The Republicans are scared shitless, more for the prospect of the party falling apart than for this particular election. A Trump nomination represent a short-term defeat. A brokered convention with Trump pulling his supporters away from the party out of spite finalizes the alienation that began with the Tea Partiers.
In short, a Trump nomination screws the Republicans, and a brokered convention screws the Republicans.
In this case I think it's better for the Democrats if Trump gets nominated; it allows the country to see exactly how filthy the Republicans actually are willing to get.