(October 30, 2016 at 4:18 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: Also, the Lichtman video was from September, before all three debates, before the sexual assault admission video and subsequent slew of accusations. I would have told you that I thought Trump was going to win at that time. Nate Silver had Trump ahead or too close to call during that time.
Lichtman doesn't care about those things. His model is based on the premise that Presidential elections are primarily a referendum on the performance of the previous term of Presidency.
(October 30, 2016 at 4:18 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: But you are parroting Trump. This is Trump's campaign line, crafted after he got caught encouraging a foreign government to tamper with our election. His only recourse was to obfuscate and claim that "we don't know who it was."
I don't care if it is his line or not, we do not know who supplied the emails to Wikileaks. It could have been the Russians. Or for all we know the Russians may have hacked the email server, and someone else like India also hacked it separately and they're the ones that leaked the emails to Wikileaks. There's no compelling evidence that it was the Russians that is public knowledge.
And besides - why would the Russians want to help Trump over Clinton? What are they going to gain by doing that?
What you're doing FYI is parroting Clinton's line. She made it a political tactic to blame the Russians for the leaked hacked emails.
(October 30, 2016 at 4:18 am)SteelCurtain Wrote: You are now doing the same obfuscation. No one is claiming to know that it was for sure the Russian government. We know a lot of things that point in that direction, and we know of zero things that point to China, or India for that matter, chucklefuck. All of the US Intelligence entities =/= "some CIA spoof." Most non-government cybersecurity experts who have examined the hack have the same conclusion. The only ones who aren't sure are merely skeptical. This whole "we don't know for sure but it could be the Indians" gambit is right out of the Trump playbook. Congrats.
Again, SC, if they had real evidence they would say what it is. These are the same assholes that told the world they were confident that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction - do you remember that?
For Religion & Health see:[/b][/size] Williams & Sternthal. (2007). Spirituality, religion and health: Evidence and research directions. Med. J. Aust., 186(10), S47-S50. -LINK
The WIN/Gallup End of Year Survey 2013 found the US was perceived to be the greatest threat to world peace by a huge margin, with 24% of respondents fearful of the US followed by: 8% for Pakistan, and 6% for China. This was followed by 5% each for: Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, North Korea. -LINK
"That's disgusting. There were clean athletes out there that have had their whole careers ruined by people like Lance Armstrong who just bended thoughts to fit their circumstances. He didn't look up cheating because he wanted to stop, he wanted to justify what he was doing and to keep that continuing on." - Nicole Cooke
The WIN/Gallup End of Year Survey 2013 found the US was perceived to be the greatest threat to world peace by a huge margin, with 24% of respondents fearful of the US followed by: 8% for Pakistan, and 6% for China. This was followed by 5% each for: Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, North Korea. -LINK
"That's disgusting. There were clean athletes out there that have had their whole careers ruined by people like Lance Armstrong who just bended thoughts to fit their circumstances. He didn't look up cheating because he wanted to stop, he wanted to justify what he was doing and to keep that continuing on." - Nicole Cooke