(August 30, 2017 at 6:32 pm)Alex K Wrote: But that's a stupid comparison every climate sceptic will immediately see through because climate change is orders of magnitude more difficult to predict.
I believe that human-induced global warming can be predicted from first principles, namely, thermodynamics. One can also do a simple linear regression plot (global temperature v. carbon dioxide in the atmosphere) and test the regression coefficient to see if it spans zero. It doesn't:
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/table...s+dSST.txt
http://ftp.aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/t...mm_mlo.txt
I did this some time ago and got an adjusted R-squared of around 0.78 (good enough for government work); when I added a binary variable for volcanism, my regression increased to a little above 0.80. I will certainly try to do this again here soon.