RE: George Takei (original Star Trek Sulu) Accused of Sexual Assault
November 12, 2017 at 1:02 pm
(November 12, 2017 at 12:34 pm)Rev. Rye Wrote: We know false accusations do happen. The big question is not whether it happens, or how often. Wikipedia's page on false rape accusations includes several studies on the phoenomenon and they vary wildly on how often it happens (and I mean fro 1.5% to 90% wildly). That said, they tend to skew towards the less common.
My own personal guess: the biggest study of the phoenomenon was by the British Home Office in 2005, and they concluded that 67 out of the 2643 cases they studied were possible or probable false allegations. Meanwhile, RAINN estimates 321,500 people are sexually assaulted per year. They also estimate only 341 cases out of 1000 will report what happened to the police. All three statistics, for reasons inherent in the nature of the offense, are very difficult to get a handle on, but it would seem they are reliable.
So, we take the math and come up with a number.
321500*.341*(67/2643)=2779 cases per year. (7.608 per day)
Needless to say, this is a drop in the bucket compared to the rapes that actually happen, but there's still a bit more than 15 people every two days who get falsely accused.
Yes, we have failed victims in the past; Yes, it's usually a safe bet that the people who come forward are telling the truth; But this doesn't justify going to the opposite extreme because that will also end up in innocent people having their lives ruined.
Look at the evidence, wait for more, and see where it takes us. He could be innocent, he could be the gay Asian Bill Cosby. Jumping to conclusions does nobody any good. If anyone here hasn't watched 12 Angry Men, I would highly recommend you do. There's lots of clips of the 1957 film on Youtube (and even the whole thing through a paywall), as well as the original 1954 teleplay, and even a couple stage productions, but whichever one you watch, the idea will be the same: there's only one way to figure out the truth - by investigating.
And, as Brian37 said, convicting someone while there's still room for reasonable doubt (even if it's just the court of public opinion) is a horrible thing, even if it's for the most horrible offenses. Once we stop caring about that, it's no longer a matter of justice, but human sacrifice.
The most famous case I can think of of an over zealous society was back in the 80s, 12 daycare workers were accused of molestation and satanism and all sorts of things. 3 of them were convicted, but the accusations hurt those who didn't do it, and even with the convicted years later, the kids recanted their accusations. The problem with not getting it right the first time based on fact, is that if too much of the process is based on zeal and emotion, even when you do charge the right people, it can undermine the ability to make the charges stick with no chance of reversal on appeal.
Everyone wants the criminals to be charged and put away, but it does no good for the long term freedom of all to convict on emotions.
