Delicious tasty word Salad.

[downbeatplumb]

It is circular reasoning to assess the likelihood of what is true by what you already think is likely to be true. Conjecture begets conjecture. And certainty has it's disciplines, for it hates knowing without decisive insight and proof. Escape this trap of Iblis, estimating what is likely to be true by what you already estimate likely to be true.
Good luck everyone.

Indeed, which is why you need a way to test what is true based on evidence and not what you believe or think you can argue for.

Go where the evidence leads you mystic not on what you really REALLY want to be true.