Not that I ever will again, but....

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

Don't fly, and feel fucking AWESOME about not flying. To explain:

I have been concerned for many years about global warming and unnecessary air-travel's contribution to that in particular. I have come to the conclusion that this COVID-19 pandemic has taken this devastating global form due to the explosion in the volume of air-travel this planet has seen over the last 20 years or so. I'll spell out my reasoning for this as concisely as I can so please bear with me. Briefly put: I was very disapproving of air travel before COVID-19, due to global warming. Well, now....I absolutely loath it. 


The COVID-19 virus is virtually identical to the SARS virus of the 2003 epidemic (NOT pandemic). It is fair in my opinion to call this outbreak "SARS2." The COVID-19 virus' official name is, after all: severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), as opposed to "SARS" which was called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Both also originated in China, likely through wet markets, bats and civets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS_(disambiguation)


The 2003 SARS outbreak was reported to have a mortality rate of 10% and COVID-19 is widely reported as having a mortality rate of around 1%. However, if the figures for the UK at time of writing (51618 cases; 5373 deaths) and/or Netherlands (18803 cases; 1867 deaths), for example, were taken as they stand, then this SARS2/COVID-19 outbreak would be recorded as ALSO having a 10% mortality rate. If the figure for Italy were taken, that would return a 12.5% mortality rate – higher than SARS. It all depends on how widely testing for COVID-19 is carried out. It seems more than fair to deduce there'd be less widespread testing in Chine 17 years ago, which would explain to a large extent the 2003 SARS figures of 8,98 cases and 774 deaths.

If the two virus' (SARS and SARS2) are virtually identical then why has this 2019/20 outbreak been so very very much worse than the 2003 SARS epidemic? A massive increase in air-travel. According to the linked graph there's been a 10 fold increase in air travel out of China since the time of the 2003 SARS epidemic. There has also been a similar increase in air-travel between the various regions of China, and a huge increase in air travel globally in general too over that period. One reason Italy has it so bad is due to skiing season, it has been suggested, for example, and for a time Switzerland had the highest per capita infection rate in the world too – ski season. A single coughing SARS2 patient in a packed airport could infect carriers to a dozen different countries at least, by reason.


Graph of increase in China's outbound flights: https://fm-static.cnbc.com/awsmedia/char...183660.PNG


As if global warming weren't enough of a reason to stop doing an impression of the demise of Icarus, now we have SARS2/3/n. We cannot afford to sleepwalk into a "SARS3" pandemic by continuing to globe trot at a whim like there's no tomorrow, I conclude.


I hope this information will help with your/our objective to drastically cut air travel and do keep up the good work. As with many things perhaps, the darker the dark cloud (COVID-19) the brighter the silver lining.

*books a flight to Pago Pago, purely out of spite*

Boru