(May 15, 2020 at 7:05 pm)The Grand Nudger Wrote: Pearl was straight up brilliant. Fun fact, one of (if not the) chief architects of the attack was one of the most vocal critics of war with the us. In the end, seeing that conflict was inevitable, he resigned himself to the necessity of giving his country the best position it could open with.
which arguably diminished japan’s chances of avoiding defeat.
if japan had not attacked pearl harbor, but attacked Philippines and Guam instead, the pacific fleet would have followed long established US strategic playbook, and sailed through thousands of miles of pacific ocean surrounded by japanese treaty mandates islands to relieve philippines.
The Japanese and the US navies had both been preparing for this scenario for 20 years, and the japanese were way ahead in tactics, doctrine and equipment for winning this sort of battle. it was very likely such a move would have ended in disaster for the US Pacific fleet. the actual odds in this sort of battle facing pacific fleet in dec 1941 would have been even steeper than usual because much of the fleet train and destroyer screen had been stripped to enforce the atlantic. this would have made the pacific fleet even more susceptible to japanese weapons, tactics and doctrine.
If the war started ordinarily instead of a surprise attack. if the US fleet sailed to near japan and was annihilated in a seemingly even battle, it would deprive the US of much of the moral indignation that stiffened its pursuit of the war.
