(November 25, 2011 at 4:58 am)Anymouse Wrote:(November 25, 2011 at 4:47 am)ElDinero Wrote: Errrr no, come on Anymouse. We know the conditions necessary for life to exist on a planet. We know there are other planets that share these conditions. We can surmise through the number of solar systems we know there to be that there are several billion planets with these conditions. The chance that of all the planets in the universe that could hold life, that we sit on the only one that does seems statistically negligible. That is evidence, but it is not proof.Why is it statistically negligible? We have a statistical universe of one example of life: only one planet has ever been discovered with life on it.
We can therefore assign no odds as to the likelihood of life on other planets. We cannot even be sure that another planet with what appears to have the proper characteristics has life; proper distance from sun, proper compounds as determined by spectral analysis, &c. mean nothing if, for example, the planet is plagued by 1,000 mph winds, or has an orbital rotation of an hour and a half.
An example of a small statistical universe: I bought a lottery ticket in September that won $500. (Really.) I bought another lottery ticket last week (the first since the $500 prize), that won $8. Those are the only two lottery tickets I ever bought in this state. I spent $2, and won $508.
From this, if I knew nothing about lottery tickets, I could conclude all lottery tickets are winners. (I bought two and they both won.)
Likewise, we have discovered exactly one planet with the same conditions as Earth that also has life, that is, Earth. We only know of life on Earth. We know nothing about life on other planets, like the lottery tickets I didn't buy in the example above.
We can suppose there might be others, but we do not know. It is possible that all similar planets have life. It is possible that no similar planets have life. We cannot assign "odds," therefore the phrase "it seems likely" cannot apply. We do not know it is likely. "Seems" means it sounds plausible; it doesn't mean it is true.
Like other scientific questions we do not have the answer to, the correct answer is, "We don't know."
No, we don't know. Even though you are playing devils advocate, you must be able to see that the numbers are so vast that life elsewhere is probable.
The main reason "we don't know" is down to the obvious difficulty in gathering evidence from beyond our solar system.
You are currently experiencing a lucky and very brief window of awareness, sandwiched in between two periods of timeless and utter nothingness. So why not make the most of it, and stop wasting your life away trying to convince other people that there is something else? The reality is obvious.
