RE: North Korea...suicidal, or attention whore?
March 9, 2013 at 12:52 am
(This post was last modified: March 9, 2013 at 12:54 am by Jackalope.)
(March 7, 2013 at 10:58 am)Darkstar Wrote:Quote:War-game scenarios have suggested that a war on the peninsula would be over quickly, with the North under U.S. and South Korean control within 24 hours, Walker said.No surprise here.
I can think of only two scenarios where the peninsula could be reduced so quickly. One involves widespread use of nuclear weapons, the other mass surrender by NKA forces. I do not think either scenario is likely.
(March 7, 2013 at 10:58 am)Darkstar Wrote:Quote:However, the Korea Economic Institute earlier this week warned that Pyongyang could "certainly inflict serious damage along the Southern side of the [demilitarized zone] in the event of a surprise attack" using artillery.I doubt they're actually crazy enough to go through with this, but who knows. The North Koreans are pretty out there...
As I've said previously, I think Kim is bluffing. The quote above is likely correct - NK has had over 60 years to harden and supply their artillery emplacements, and there are an enormous number of them. They can inflict a huge amount of damage quickly, however, they do not have an unlimited supply of ammunition, supply lines can be disrupted, and any position that fires can be targeted quickly with counter-battery fire., cruise missiles, drones, and conventional aircraft.
In addition, while the NK forces may lag technologically, they have a massive number of ground troops - and underestimating them would be a mistake.
Then again, Kim is bluffing.
I hope.
(March 8, 2013 at 11:59 pm)cratehorus Wrote:
I frequently disagree with you, but yeah, that was about my reaction too.