Mouse, I had some oral surgery today and feel like shit so I’ll keep this short. There are a few points I’d like to address though.
You keep talking about an ice age. Technically our planet has been in an ice age for more 2.5 million years. The Quaternary glaciation has not ended yet. We are currently in an interglacial period that began ten to twelve thousand years ago. This interglacial period marks the beginning of the Holocene epoch. Since we are currently in an ice age anyone that can remember yesterday remembers the ice age so I don’t think that is what you are talking about.
What I think you are talking about are claims that an ice age was predicted in the 70’s. It is true that both Time and Newsweek ran articles in the mid 70’s citing scientists that predicted global cooling. These articles were picked up by the media in general. However, most of the scientific papers published during the period dealing with the issue were not predicting cooling. They were predicting warming due to CO2 gases. Between 1965 and 1979 a total of seven papers predicted cooling. There were 42 that predicted warming. There were also several climate related papers that were neutral on the issue. Neutral was the consensus position for most scientific organizations during the time. They believed the issue needed more study. That position has now changed to warming for most of those organizations.
Source
Claims that there has been no warming in the last ten years are false.
![[Image: SkepticsvRealistsv3.gif]](https://images.weserv.nl/?url=www.skepticalscience.com%2Fpics%2FSkepticsvRealistsv3.gif)
Nine out of ten of the hottest years on record since 1880 occurred in the 21st century. It is true that surface temperature has not increased as much as expected lately, but recent research has told us why. The missing heat is going into the deep ocean. That trend is expected to end in the near future and surface temperatures will once again increase as rapidly as ever.
I would also like to address what appears to be doubt about the general validity of the greenhouse effect, and human contributions to atmospheric CO2. First off the greenhouse effect is just a label. It is well known that the mechanisms that drive global warming and garden greenhouses are not the same. Never the less they are both about energy balance. When energy in is different than energy out the temperature changes. If energy out is greater than energy in things cool down. When energy out is less than energy in things warm up. So called greenhouse components of the atmosphere such as water vapor, methane and CO2 absorb IR and keep it from escaping into space. The more of those components there are in the atmosphere the more energy they absorb allowing less to escape into space. As long they are allowing less energy to escape than we receive the temperature will increase. Period end of that discussion.
Yes, the human generated portion of total annual CO2 emissions are only a fraction of natural ones. Unfortunitly it is enough of a fraction to upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. That causes an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. There have been several studies on just how much of the CO2 we produce stays in the atmosphere over the long term. The results of those studies varies between 40 and 50%. That means we are adding 12 to 15 gigatons of CO2 to the air every year that stays there. It is enough to make a difference.
@ Kichi
As far as solutions go scientists have been telling us the solution for years. Cut back on the amount of CO2 we are pumping into the atmosphere. Methods to do that include using different methods to generate our energy, capturing the carbon before it released, and taxing the shit out of it in order to make it uneconomical. I'm not a big fan of the last one, but the first two are viable if we are willing to tighten the belt a couple of notches and make the capital investments required. No it isn’t going to bring warming to a sudden halt. It would however result in less warming over the long term.
They have also been telling what we need to do to adapt. Besides for developing alternative energy production we need to use energy more efficiently. We need to stop development in low lying costal and other flood prone areas. We need to start moving people out of those areas. More work needs to be done developing drought-resistant plants. Planting and harvesting schedules need to be modified.
You keep talking about an ice age. Technically our planet has been in an ice age for more 2.5 million years. The Quaternary glaciation has not ended yet. We are currently in an interglacial period that began ten to twelve thousand years ago. This interglacial period marks the beginning of the Holocene epoch. Since we are currently in an ice age anyone that can remember yesterday remembers the ice age so I don’t think that is what you are talking about.
What I think you are talking about are claims that an ice age was predicted in the 70’s. It is true that both Time and Newsweek ran articles in the mid 70’s citing scientists that predicted global cooling. These articles were picked up by the media in general. However, most of the scientific papers published during the period dealing with the issue were not predicting cooling. They were predicting warming due to CO2 gases. Between 1965 and 1979 a total of seven papers predicted cooling. There were 42 that predicted warming. There were also several climate related papers that were neutral on the issue. Neutral was the consensus position for most scientific organizations during the time. They believed the issue needed more study. That position has now changed to warming for most of those organizations.
Source
Claims that there has been no warming in the last ten years are false.
Nine out of ten of the hottest years on record since 1880 occurred in the 21st century. It is true that surface temperature has not increased as much as expected lately, but recent research has told us why. The missing heat is going into the deep ocean. That trend is expected to end in the near future and surface temperatures will once again increase as rapidly as ever.
I would also like to address what appears to be doubt about the general validity of the greenhouse effect, and human contributions to atmospheric CO2. First off the greenhouse effect is just a label. It is well known that the mechanisms that drive global warming and garden greenhouses are not the same. Never the less they are both about energy balance. When energy in is different than energy out the temperature changes. If energy out is greater than energy in things cool down. When energy out is less than energy in things warm up. So called greenhouse components of the atmosphere such as water vapor, methane and CO2 absorb IR and keep it from escaping into space. The more of those components there are in the atmosphere the more energy they absorb allowing less to escape into space. As long they are allowing less energy to escape than we receive the temperature will increase. Period end of that discussion.
Yes, the human generated portion of total annual CO2 emissions are only a fraction of natural ones. Unfortunitly it is enough of a fraction to upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. That causes an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. There have been several studies on just how much of the CO2 we produce stays in the atmosphere over the long term. The results of those studies varies between 40 and 50%. That means we are adding 12 to 15 gigatons of CO2 to the air every year that stays there. It is enough to make a difference.
@ Kichi
As far as solutions go scientists have been telling us the solution for years. Cut back on the amount of CO2 we are pumping into the atmosphere. Methods to do that include using different methods to generate our energy, capturing the carbon before it released, and taxing the shit out of it in order to make it uneconomical. I'm not a big fan of the last one, but the first two are viable if we are willing to tighten the belt a couple of notches and make the capital investments required. No it isn’t going to bring warming to a sudden halt. It would however result in less warming over the long term.
They have also been telling what we need to do to adapt. Besides for developing alternative energy production we need to use energy more efficiently. We need to stop development in low lying costal and other flood prone areas. We need to start moving people out of those areas. More work needs to be done developing drought-resistant plants. Planting and harvesting schedules need to be modified.
Save a life. Adopt a greyhound.
![[Image: JUkLw58.gif]](https://i.imgur.com/JUkLw58.gif)
