RE: Can War work?
August 26, 2013 at 1:55 pm
(This post was last modified: August 26, 2013 at 2:21 pm by Anomalocaris.)
(August 26, 2013 at 1:03 pm)The Germans are coming Wrote:(August 26, 2013 at 12:02 pm)Chuck Wrote: Define "work".
I am unfortunatly unable to answere.
No matter who wins in Syria, the new regime will certainly be anti western. The only question remaining is if it will be a suni puppet state of Saudi Arabia or a shia puppet state of Iran.
The only hope there is for democracy is if Turkey takes it`s time to invest recources in it`s neighbour. But that is unlikely.
I think if "work" is defined as a achieving a regime that does not strengthen any independent, non-western oriented pole of power in the Middleeast, then the west has irretrievably lost this struggle when it failed to realize 2 years ago that the least anti-west independent regime plusible in Syria was the pre-conflict Assad regime. Now, the Assad regime is strongly beholden to Russia.
What you ask Turkey, a smallish power, to do is to work on behalf of the west against the close and long standing interest of Russia,which is still a much greater power. Secular Turkey will likely lose badly against Russia in this a regional political struggle, and Turkey will certainly not be compensated for her troubles by the west. If anything, the west will be delighted if Turkey is hobbled in the long run while acting in the interest of the west, and will not hesitate to criticize Turkey for employing necessary methods to achieve fundamentally western ends. Turkey knows this perfectly well and probably won't fall into the trap.
I think the real reason for Western intervention is to check the rise of Russia's influence in Syria. This actually could "work", provided the west is willing to accept a regime that is anti-west at the same time as it is anti-Russia. This does mean creating a regime in Syria beholden to Saudi-Arabia.
