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Fine tuning argument assessed

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Fine tuning argument assessed
FreeTony Offline
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Religious Views: Atheist
Posts: 736
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Joined: December 3, 2013
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#26
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed
February 9, 2014 at 1:56 pm
(February 9, 2014 at 1:35 pm)Jacob(smooth) Wrote: Lucia de berk for one. I have a whole talk on that.
1 in 2 Smile
Bayeristic probability. Great fun.

Yeah, here's another one: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sally_Clark...l_evidence

Close, but the answer is actually 1/3 (you may have misread that the background rate was 0.5%, not 1%)

Best way to think about it without doing the maths is that if you tested 200 people, 1 of which is actually a drug taker, the most likely outcome would be:
2 false positives.
1 true positive.

Therefore 1/3 positives are true ones.
Find
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Atheist Forums › Community › Atheism v
Fine tuning argument assessed

Messages In This Thread
Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 9, 2014 at 4:42 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Zen Badger - February 9, 2014 at 4:53 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Mr. Moncrieff - March 1, 2014 at 9:01 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Jacob(smooth) - February 9, 2014 at 4:57 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Heywood - March 8, 2014 at 7:02 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by WesOlsen - February 9, 2014 at 5:11 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Rayaan - February 9, 2014 at 5:18 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 9, 2014 at 5:27 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Jacob(smooth) - February 9, 2014 at 5:36 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Esquilax - February 9, 2014 at 5:51 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Rayaan - February 9, 2014 at 6:40 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Jacob(smooth) - February 9, 2014 at 1:04 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 9, 2014 at 7:26 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Esquilax - February 9, 2014 at 8:17 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 9, 2014 at 7:59 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 9, 2014 at 8:10 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 9, 2014 at 11:43 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Esquilax - February 9, 2014 at 11:49 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by WesOlsen - February 9, 2014 at 9:53 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 9, 2014 at 12:22 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Cato - February 9, 2014 at 1:29 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by LostLocke - February 9, 2014 at 10:10 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by FreeTony - February 9, 2014 at 10:36 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Tonus - February 9, 2014 at 11:48 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Whateverist - February 9, 2014 at 12:30 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by FreeTony - February 9, 2014 at 1:17 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Jacob(smooth) - February 9, 2014 at 1:35 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by FreeTony - February 9, 2014 at 1:56 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Jacob(smooth) - February 9, 2014 at 2:05 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Whateverist - February 9, 2014 at 2:44 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 9, 2014 at 2:10 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 9, 2014 at 2:46 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by WesOlsen - February 9, 2014 at 2:20 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 9, 2014 at 5:33 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Whateverist - February 9, 2014 at 2:48 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by FreeTony - February 9, 2014 at 3:03 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Whateverist - February 9, 2014 at 3:32 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Chas - February 9, 2014 at 3:33 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Jacob(smooth) - February 9, 2014 at 3:38 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Rayaan - February 9, 2014 at 5:11 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 9, 2014 at 6:08 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by FreeTony - February 9, 2014 at 5:29 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Rayaan - February 9, 2014 at 6:43 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Esquilax - February 10, 2014 at 12:46 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by FreeTony - February 9, 2014 at 7:24 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Whateverist - February 9, 2014 at 7:40 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 9, 2014 at 8:00 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by houseofcantor - February 10, 2014 at 11:06 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Whateverist - February 9, 2014 at 8:54 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 10, 2014 at 1:10 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Angrboda - February 10, 2014 at 1:12 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 10, 2014 at 11:46 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Tonus - February 10, 2014 at 11:53 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 10, 2014 at 1:55 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Tonus - February 10, 2014 at 2:01 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by downbeatplumb - February 10, 2014 at 2:42 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 10, 2014 at 3:43 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Mister Agenda - February 10, 2014 at 3:54 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 10, 2014 at 4:52 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Tonus - February 10, 2014 at 3:57 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by hatsoff - February 10, 2014 at 4:01 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Tonus - February 10, 2014 at 4:09 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by hatsoff - February 10, 2014 at 4:25 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Tonus - February 10, 2014 at 4:34 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Mothonis - February 22, 2014 at 1:05 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by hatsoff - February 10, 2014 at 3:56 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by hatsoff - February 10, 2014 at 3:23 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by MindForgedManacle - February 10, 2014 at 10:41 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Ryantology - February 10, 2014 at 11:53 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - February 10, 2014 at 12:47 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Mister Agenda - February 10, 2014 at 3:04 pm
Re: Fine tuning argument assessed - by StuW - February 10, 2014 at 4:28 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by WesOlsen - February 10, 2014 at 5:19 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Sword of Christ - February 10, 2014 at 8:29 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Angrboda - February 10, 2014 at 11:17 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by JuliaL - February 11, 2014 at 12:31 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by EvolutionKills - February 11, 2014 at 10:20 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Wyrd of Gawd - February 25, 2014 at 5:44 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Chas - February 26, 2014 at 1:36 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Wyrd of Gawd - March 1, 2014 at 2:57 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Chas - March 1, 2014 at 8:35 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Wyrd of Gawd - March 1, 2014 at 1:58 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Chas - March 2, 2014 at 1:10 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by houseofcantor - March 2, 2014 at 9:46 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by LostLocke - March 2, 2014 at 10:07 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Minimalist - February 11, 2014 at 12:56 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by WesOlsen - February 11, 2014 at 3:03 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Chas - February 22, 2014 at 12:35 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Minimalist - February 22, 2014 at 1:59 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by jesus_wept - February 26, 2014 at 4:50 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by max-greece - March 1, 2014 at 2:11 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Wyrd of Gawd - March 2, 2014 at 8:47 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by LostLocke - March 2, 2014 at 9:53 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Wyrd of Gawd - March 4, 2014 at 12:35 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by LostLocke - March 4, 2014 at 8:04 am
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Wyrd of Gawd - March 4, 2014 at 2:48 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by LostLocke - March 4, 2014 at 2:58 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by Chas - March 10, 2014 at 10:00 pm
RE: Fine tuning argument assessed - by houseofcantor - March 2, 2014 at 10:18 am
Fine tuning argument assessed - by Rampant.A.I. - March 10, 2014 at 10:35 pm

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