“Intelligence,” OUT OF NOTHINGNESS!

[Coffee Jesus]

That's right. But now, suppose that every roll of the dice caused changes to their geometry-- or even to the number of dice you were rolling. Can you still say that there's anything predictable about the outcome over even a few rolls? No-- you'll end up with a Butterfly Effect in all cases-- you may be able to trace a line BACKWARD through each outcome, but you will never be able to predict future states.

The discussion was on whether the "sieve" of natural selection is random.

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Mutation is not the only source of variation, there is also relative frequency of alleles in the population.

The environment 'selects' what survives and reproduces. The variants that make it through that sieve determine adaptation. And that is not random.

It is random, because that sieve is not static. It involves too many unpredictable variables: weather, for example, or giant rocks falling from the sky, or the whims of powerful individuals. None of these things are predictable, and they all serve to destabilize environmental pressures.

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The rolling of the dice represents natural selection acting on individuals. The sum of the outcomes represents changes in allele frequency.