Determinism, Free Will and Paradox

[The Grand Nudger]

Yes, and given the present state, none of those preceding it could have been different than they have been.

They could have been, all we can say with confidence is that they weren't - every question along this line terminates at a "we don't know" point, we can only work with what we've got, after all. Nothing about our present state is the cause of anything in some past state, in our experience - so the direction that you're trying to make this implication move in is simply unworkable without some additional information.

Tell me, does lightning strike upward, or downward?

Neither, and the experience of a human observer is amusingly inadequate regardless. A person might say, accurately, "I see it striking inward" as a way of communicating that it comes "down" from the sky in the way that they experience it....but they'd be wrong, on both counts, despite providing an accurate representation of how they (and others) experience it, huh? Que "free will".

(lighting follows the path of least resistance, the leader proceeds from the cloud to the ground...but the visible charge is actually headed toward that leader from the ground - the human eye is incapable of perceiving this - nothing about your question refers to what lightning is or does, but to what the human eye is capable of perceiving - better instrumentation gave us a more accurate picture - despite being incapable of changing what we experience or how we experience it...even when we know that we are experiencing it in a manner that is factually incorrect, I would suggest that this is also a factor in "free will"..more accurately our experience thereof.)