New Concerns That Israel Is Close To Striking Iran's Nuclear Facilities

[A Theist]

New fears that Israel may be getting closer to war with Iran over that country's nuclear facilities. The Israeli government is passing out gas masks to it's citizens in preparation of an Iranian counter attack....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/midd...story.html

[Faith No More]

Sometimes I get the feeling that Iran is baiting Israel into attacking them first. I wouldn't be surprised if their nuclear program was benign but they deveolped it in secret knowing full well that Israel would have to make the assumption that they are developing weapons. Thereby causing Israel to attack first, Iran can paint them as the evil aggressor to the international community when they then present proof that their nuclear program is benign.

Of course, this is not based on any sort of evidence. My instincts, however, tell me that Iran actually wants Israel to attack.

[Anomalocaris]

I also think Iran is greatly emboldened because from Iranian point of view, she had beaten the United States completely and asserted her own interests in region. Furthermore, she thinks she had attained her victory greatly against her own initial expectations, and in spite of what she perceive to be, not unreasonably, perfidious treachery by the United States in the aftermath of the Iraqi invasion.

So her strategic powers in the region are at a high point. She thinks the impact of western sanctions are a small price for the maintanance and consolidation of her powers.

[Cato]

FNM,
This article supports your instinct.

Israel's existence is an "insult to all humanity," Iran's president said Friday in one of his sharpest attacks yet against the Jewish state...

http://news.yahoo.com/iran-israels-exist...22735.html

[Anomalocaris]

I don't disagree Iran could see further long term strategic benefit to herself, in relation to her sunni neighbors, in absorbing some blows from Isreal but provoking a general, prolonged irregular proxy conflict between herself and Isreal.

Iran is not out to destroy Isreal. For a long term to come I think Iran can't care less about Isreal per se, except for the fact that Iran can capitalize on the Muslim world's hatred for Isreal to increase her own influence amongst the Muslim world, particularly against the Sunni regimes in Saudi Arabia and the gulf shiekdoms. If provoking a war with Isreal will do that, than Iran will provoke a war with Isreal.

If you would notice, the defence minister of Saudi Arabia was in Pakistan about 2 weeks ago, discussing the possibility of buying Pakistani nukes for Saudi forces. This is wide reported but not adversely commented upon the western press. In the late 1990s, Saudi Arabia bought a bunch of decommissioned Chinese Intermediate range bullistic missiles without warheads. This should tell you a thing or two about who has the most to raytionally fear from a powerful Iran, and if Iran developes a nuclear weapon where it is most like aimed. Iran is out to create a Shiite dominated middle east. She is out to make mellienial changes to the sectarian landscape of the heart of middle east. Israel is periferal to this.

[A Theist]

This has the potential of becoming a great disaster. By all rights Israel has every reason to be concerned about Iran's nuclear facilities and has every right to defend itself. By the same token this whole war scenario could quite possibly expand to draw in other Arab Middle Eastern countries along with Russia and China, the United States and Great Britain, all who have vested interests in the region.

[Minimalist]

My instincts, however, tell me that Iran actually wants Israel to attack.

The ayatollahs have internal problems. 70% of their population is young and their own power relies strictly on the force of arms of the military. Hosni Mubarak had the same situation and look what happened to him. But playing the old "la patrie en danger" card is a trick as old as history.

When the tyrant has disposed of foreign enemies by conquest or treaty, and there is nothing to fear from them, then he is always stirring up some war or other, in order that the people may require a leader.

--Plato

[Oldandeasilyconfused]

I could not care less if those Israel and Iran bomb each other into the stone age.


I DO have concerns about the use of nuclear weapons as that could change the balance of power in the Middle East and threaten oil supplies. THAT could lead to a really big,especially nasty war,which would effect my country. I think both countries have politicians stupid enough to use nuclear weapons AND who are capable ordering of a pre emptive strike..

[Anomalocaris]

I think it's unwise to extrapolate from egypt to Iran. Egypt has a military the live on US financial support and therefore an unwillingness to do thing resulting in open breach with the US, a tribal based grass root culture tradition, and no experience with democracy other than hearsay and naive expectation.
Iran has an independent military with little reliance on foreign benefactor eager to condition its behavior, a long tradition of centralized state dating back 2500 years, and believe it or not a considerable amount of functioning lower to mid level democracy beneath a crust of what is a relatively liberal Shiite theocracy.
If there was ever a middle eastern culture that is making spontaneous and effective progress towards real modernity, it's actually our bogey man Iran.

[Minimalist]

I think it's unwise to extrapolate from egypt to Iran.

Has nothing to do with Egypt and Iran. It is a scenario that goes back to antiquity. Only the players change - not the game.