The US should not intervene in Ukraine!

[Anomalocaris]

I think he is pretty rational in exploiting the various latent idosyncracies of Russian society, including homophobia, to create the impression that he stands with the more conservative of them, so as to mobilize them to support his own agenda.

We may think it is unscrupulous, but that is different from irrational.

BTW, even if he violently invades and occupies all of Ukraine, I am confident NATO won't intervene. Russia's 8000 nuclear warheads still counts for something. Right now nuclear nonproliforation has just taken as big a dent as it has ever suffered. No regime that has voluntarily given up its nuclear program in return for international promise of security has fail to come to grief. Meanwhile any regime that has clung to its nuclear program have thus far survived with territorial integrity intact. I don't think we will ever again see any deminution of effort on the part of non-nuclear states to acquire nuclear weapons from now on.

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The first time Russia cuts off the gas supply, that will change.

Money talks - bullshit walks. Even Putin understands that.

What is more, Putin seem to have weighed the value of money to the west much more finely than any government in the west, and knows much more precisely how much he could push before the west really can't stand it any more. And I think he judged correctly that he could push a lot more and the west really will still stand it, even if the west right now imagine in our indignation that we won't stand for it.

We imagine we are passable poker players trying to play chess. Putin is a real chess player.

[Autumnlicious]

Assuming the russian arsenal is even remotely usable...

Solid fuel rockets crystallize, hypergolics corrode, etc,.

Georgian coworker and I agree that Putin is doing this for show and really intends to pivot his oil to China in five years if Europe continues to annoy him.

We also agree that Europe is so cowardly and vulnerable to losing Russian oil that they'll capitulate.

Personally, I think the solution is to revoke the threat of oil dependence on Putin.

Make a deal with the devil, don't be surprised when he grabs you by the balls.

[Anomalocaris]

I would bet New York or London on Russian missile fuel having crystallized. Russia has converted a number of their ICBMs to commercial satellite launchers, and these have had excellent reliability record. Clearly the Russians still know how to make their existing arsenals work.

[Autumnlicious]

Stats for my personal interests?

I like to update my knowledge when potentially invalid.

[Heywood]

Stats for my personal interests?

I like to update my knowledge when potentially invalid.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20130822/1828992...Orbit.html

[orogenicman]

The first time Russia cuts off the gas supply, that will change.

Russia cut off gas supply in 2009. Nothing changed.

Stay tuned.

[Anomalocaris]

Russia cut off gas supply in 2009. Nothing changed.

Stay tuned.

If you stay tuned long enough, something will happen. But that is not a useful way to make actionable forecasts.

[orogenicman]

Stay tuned.

If you stay tuned long enough, something will happen. But that is not a useful way to make actionable forecasts.

I prefer action to actionable forecasts. For instance, since Russia clearly isn't going to change their ways anytime soon, if Europe worked harder on weaning themselves off of Russian hydrocarbons, they'd but much better off, and wouldn't have to worry about Russia holding their economies hostage.

[Autumnlicious]

It is expensive for the Russian military to be parked on the Ukrainian border.

The longer the US and Ukraine can keep them on the border threatening to do something but not doing anything, the more untenable it becomes for Russia.

Putin needs to save face. If he cannot get a conflict, or a very stupid politician on the opposing side, then he will look foolish when it becomes too expensive for the Russian military to remain there.

I agree with the original post – the US should not militarily intervene in Ukraine. The US instead should force Russia to pretend and posture along Ukrainian border for as long as possible.

Consider Crimea a loss, and instead focus on attempting to give liquidity to Ukraine and spin up the light manufacturing in the western Ukraine to compensate for the economic losses.

If the Ukraine is not bankrupted by Putin's oil price war, then he will have effectively lost his attempt at subjugating a former satellite state.

[A Theist]

We have this written guarantee, signed by Adolf Hitler! Proof that appeasing a dictator equates to peace!