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Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 6:14 pm
When I say that I believe something, it does not mean that I am absolutely certain that it is true. I'm not sure that I can say anything with absolute certainty.
If I flip a coin, I will neither believe the claim that it will be heads, nor the claim that it will be tails. However what if the coin is a biased coin. At what stage should I believe that it will be Heads? Traditionally in a scientific test it would be at 95% (2 std dev). However, as far as I'm aware, this is fairly arbitrary (it's 5 sigma for new particle discoveries).
Any thoughts?
What level does a Theist use?
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RE: Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 6:16 pm
(September 4, 2014 at 6:14 pm)FreeTony Wrote: What level does a Theist use? One with its bubble off plumb?
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RE: Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 8:13 pm
I thought they used the tried and proven:
Eeny meeny minee moe! (And pick whatever god is falls on)
No God, No fear.
Know God, Know fear.
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RE: Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 8:58 pm
(This post was last modified: September 4, 2014 at 8:59 pm by naimless.)
If you believe you are certain to win a poker hand in which you have 95% equity then you will be heavily disappointed one day and develop a gambling addiction.
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RE: Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 9:35 pm
(September 4, 2014 at 6:14 pm)FreeTony Wrote: When I say that I believe something, it does not mean that I am absolutely certain that it is true. I'm not sure that I can say anything with absolute certainty.
If I flip a coin, I will neither believe the claim that it will be heads, nor the claim that it will be tails. However what if the coin is a biased coin. At what stage should I believe that it will be Heads? Traditionally in a scientific test it would be at 95% (2 std dev). However, as far as I'm aware, this is fairly arbitrary (it's 5 sigma for new particle discoveries).
Any thoughts?
What level does a Theist use? Surely, if you toss that coin repeatedly, making attempts to exclude external bias, then any coin-bias or otherwise, will show up in the ratio of heads to tails. Even then, you might not be absolutely certain.
But if you took a fresh coin, tossed it a few times, and then decided its bias, I'd say it would be much too speculative to lay your house on the line over the next toss.
I suggest that some theists may use logic in what they believe, but it seems likely that most ordinary folks believe, (in "God"), on the basis of feelings. Of course theism is a lot more complex than a coin toss, and the "facts" can made up, misinterpreted, or just plain lied about.
There are no atheists in terrorist training camps.
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RE: Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 9:51 pm
(September 4, 2014 at 6:14 pm)FreeTony Wrote: When I say that I believe something, it does not mean that I am absolutely certain that it is true. I'm not sure that I can say anything with absolute certainty.
If I flip a coin, I will neither believe the claim that it will be heads, nor the claim that it will be tails. However what if the coin is a biased coin. At what stage should I believe that it will be Heads? Traditionally in a scientific test it would be at 95% (2 std dev). However, as far as I'm aware, this is fairly arbitrary (it's 5 sigma for new particle discoveries).
Any thoughts?
What level does a Theist use? Theists clearly don't use evidentiary, statistical or logical rules. They use emotional congruence-- if it "feels" real, then it must be true.
In the theists' defense, we all do this. How many of us actually understand cutting edge science well enough to evaluate the conclusions of new theories/hypotheses?
Can we "prove" that anything is real? Can we "prove" that someone else is a thinking person, and not just a cyborg? No. It just feels so right that we take these things as obvious. But sometimes what feels right is wrong anyway.
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RE: Belief and Certainty
September 4, 2014 at 10:06 pm
(September 4, 2014 at 9:51 pm)bennyboy Wrote: Theists clearly don't use evidentiary, statistical or logical rules. They use emotional congruence-- if it "feels" real, then it must be true.
In the theists' defense, we all do this. How many of us actually understand cutting edge science well enough to evaluate the conclusions of new theories/hypotheses?
Can we "prove" that anything is real? Can we "prove" that someone else is a thinking person, and not just a cyborg? No. It just feels so right that we take these things as obvious. But sometimes what feels right is wrong anyway. I use emotional congruence when dealing with people. But, with science what I'm really relying on is that mostly medicine works, satellites stay on track, the phone works, the computer works etc. So I assume that more stuff brought to you by the same people will work.
It's fun to read about why it works sometimes. But that's just an embellishment. Reliance on science usually works so I go on relying on it.
If there is a god, I want to believe that there is a god. If there is not a god, I want to believe that there is no god.
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