A question about the lifespan of scientific theories.

[JuliaL]

[Alex K]

Damn, JuliaL, I swear to dog I had that coprolite joke in my post and deleted it bacause I thought fossilization doesn't count as preserving shit

[robvalue]

I have never heard of this either. But I agree, updating for accuracy is a good thing.

I don't think religious nutters understand the difference between a hypothesis and a theory. They are used to having any questions they have answered with made up rationalizations by another theist, which will then be allowed to stand as it will be unfalsifiable. What they have given is a hypothesis, not a theory. They probably wouldn't even use the word "theory" because they would see it as weaker than just saying what they have been told is absolutely true.

Imagine if science was like this!

[bennyboy]

A quick question to all of the people holding the facts out there:
I'm personally an Atheist, and was recently in a discussion with my Christian friend about God, evolution and so forth.
A thing that bugged me a bit was one of her "facts," which i could not really comment upon since i didn't have the knowledge about it.
Her argument was, that religion had lasted for thousands of years, and apparently (according to her "facts"), scientific theories have an average "lifespan" of about 30 years. Now i know for a fact that it's because science constantly discovers new things to replace the old theories, which i told her, but is this actually a fact, that theories have an average lifespan of 30 years?

In collecting information about reality, change is not a confession of failure. It is an adaptation to improved information.

It is an idea which survives, unchanged, for thousands of years, in spite of thousands of years of new, better, information, which is flawed.

[ManMachine]

[Tonus]

Now i know for a fact that it's because science constantly discovers new things to replace the old theories, which i told her, but is this actually a fact, that theories have an average lifespan of 30 years?

I have no idea. Scientific theories are simply an attempt to explain how things work, given the facts we have. As we learn more, those theories will change to reflect that greater knowledge. So it's possible that the "average lifespan" of a theory is 30 years. Over the past 300 years we've advanced so quickly in most scientific fields that the 30-year figure might be too long!

[Davka]

This is utter nonsense. The Theory of Evolution has been around for over 150 years, and it's still going strong. Theories do adjust various details as new evidence is discovered, but in order to make the transition from hypothesis to theory, there must be demonstrated robust predictive ability. The foundation thus established is not likely to be shatterred any time soon, certainly not in a mere 30 years.

Einstein's Theory of Relativity is still with us as well. Certain details have been shown to be wrong, but the foundation itself - the idea that everything in the observable Universe is made of the same "stuff," and that time, speed, mass and energy are relative to one-another - is solid, and still providing useful and correct predictions.

Your friend has been feeding on bullshit from the pulpit. i spent years as a Christian, and I came to realize that Pastors will repeat anything they hear from a "trusted source" that supports Christianity. They don't bother to cross-check their facts, they simply assume that if a Good Christian ™ told them, it must be true. This is the difference between religion and science: Science has the courage and honesty to continually check its facts and correct them if they're wrong. Religion merely makes up facts to support their conclusions, and never admits mistakes.

[jesus_wept]

A quick question to all of the people holding the facts out there:
I'm personally an Atheist, and was recently in a discussion with my Christian friend about God, evolution and so forth.
A thing that bugged me a bit was one of her "facts," which i could not really comment upon since i didn't have the knowledge about it.
Her argument was, that religion had lasted for thousands of years, and apparently (according to her "facts"), scientific theories have an average "lifespan" of about 30 years. Now i know for a fact that it's because science constantly discovers new things to replace the old theories, which i told her, but is this actually a fact, that theories have an average lifespan of 30 years?

Ask her if she's ever heard of the argument from tradition fallacy and tell her that the belief that the earth is flat is much older then the belief that the earth is spherical.

edit: i dont like saying that the earth being spherical is a belief but I dont know how else to phrase it.

[downbeatplumb]

[vorlon13]