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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:37 pm
(This post was last modified: April 1, 2016 at 5:38 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
(April 1, 2016 at 5:32 pm)AAA Wrote: Ok fine, but that is irrelevant to the point. Clearly it's not...but that's as close to you letting this go I'm going to get, isn't it, lol?
Quote:Let's go with Stimbo's example then. If you draw a random sequence of 10 cards, what are the odds that you would get the sequence you get? pretty low. But if you draw 10 cards, you are guaranteed to have some sequence of 10 cards.
Indeed.
Quote:However, what if we said that only a few of these sequences are acceptable, then what are the odds that you would get one of these sequences of 10 cards are low.
Agreed.
Quote:If all sequences of 10 are acceptable, then the chance of getting an acceptable sequence is 100%.
OFC
Quote: If only a few sequences are acceptable (as is the case with proteins) then the chance of getting an acceptable sequence is low.
OFC.
-and?
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:39 pm
(April 1, 2016 at 5:33 pm)Crossless1 Wrote: (April 1, 2016 at 5:32 pm)AAA Wrote: Ok fine, but that is irrelevant to the point. Let's go with Stimbo's example then. If you draw a random sequence of 10 cards, what are the odds that you would get the sequence you get? pretty low. But if you draw 10 cards, you are guaranteed to have some sequence of 10 cards. However, what if we said that only a few of these sequences are acceptable, then what are the odds that you would get one of these sequences of 10 cards are low.
If all sequences of 10 are acceptable, then the chance of getting an acceptable sequence is 100%. If only a few sequences are acceptable (as is the case with proteins) then the chance of getting an acceptable sequence is low.
But then you deal out 10 cards millions, billions of times. What happens to your odds then?
In the card example, you will get acceptable sequences often. But as shown in the earlier calculation, you are incredibly unlikely to get a functional sequence when it comes to proteins.
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:40 pm
(This post was last modified: April 1, 2016 at 5:45 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
You'll get an acceptable sequence often, regardless of it's individual likelihood. Is an acceptable sequence not a functional sequence? Then whats all this probability shit about....? Is the math only informative when it yields the values you desire? Do you feel that individual probability overrides aggregate probability?
Is the question
-how likely is it that a single chemical interaction occuring yields life?
or
-how likely is it that -all the collective chemical interactions occurring- yields life?
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:42 pm
(This post was last modified: April 1, 2016 at 5:45 pm by Cyberman.)
(April 1, 2016 at 5:20 pm)AAA Wrote: (April 1, 2016 at 5:16 pm)Stimbo Wrote: Deal out a standard deck of 52 cards. Now, what are the odds of getting that specific arrangement in that specific order? Yet you just did it on your first try.
Look at what I said to Robvalue. Your example is a bad analogy for the same reason.
Ok, let's stick with the lottery example. Rhythm already pointed out that it can go several draws with no winning combination. What do you think the odds become if you only keep the viable numbers, the ones actually picked by the players, and respin the rest? How many spins would you need to generate a jackpot winner?
Now what do you think the odds shrink to if the balls fall according to certain rules emanating from their nature - ie, a 26 will tend to appear only if three odd numbers draw in a row?
At the age of five, Skagra decided emphatically that God did not exist. This revelation tends to make most people in the universe who have it react in one of two ways - with relief or with despair. Only Skagra responded to it by thinking, 'Wait a second. That means there's a situation vacant.'
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:45 pm
(April 1, 2016 at 5:40 pm)Rhythm Wrote: You'll get an acceptable sequence often, regardless of it's individual likelihood. Is an acceptable sequence not a functional sequence? Then whats all this probability shit about....?
With the card example, the probability is small but reasonable. It is probably one in a few thousand (I don't feel like doing the math, although I would if that would if you want). That is low, but not that unlikely.
However, with the proteins, the probability ended up being one in 7.89 x 10^131, which is very near the total events that could have happened since the start of the universe. In other words; it is so unlikely that I'm not going to put my faith in it.
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:47 pm
(This post was last modified: April 1, 2016 at 5:51 pm by The Grand Nudger.)
If those events were counted as a single contiguous stream rather than innumerable tandem streams, maybe. But that's not what happens......so....who sold you that particular line? Why did you put your faith in something so transparently false as their summary? From here, your faith doesn't seem as discerning as you might like to claim. Or was the point of getting your probabilities wrong simply to toss out the word faith, in the lamest implied TQ imaginable?
Care to do some math........?
I am the Infantry. I am my country’s strength in war, her deterrent in peace. I am the heart of the fight… wherever, whenever. I carry America’s faith and honor against her enemies. I am the Queen of Battle. I am what my country expects me to be, the best trained Soldier in the world. In the race for victory, I am swift, determined, and courageous, armed with a fierce will to win. Never will I fail my country’s trust. Always I fight on…through the foe, to the objective, to triumph overall. If necessary, I will fight to my death. By my steadfast courage, I have won more than 200 years of freedom. I yield not to weakness, to hunger, to cowardice, to fatigue, to superior odds, For I am mentally tough, physically strong, and morally straight. I forsake not, my country, my mission, my comrades, my sacred duty. I am relentless. I am always there, now and forever. I AM THE INFANTRY! FOLLOW ME!
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:51 pm
(April 1, 2016 at 5:42 pm)Stimbo Wrote: (April 1, 2016 at 5:20 pm)AAA Wrote: Look at what I said to Robvalue. Your example is a bad analogy for the same reason.
Ok, let's stick with the lottery example. Rhythm already pointed out that it can go several draws with no winning combination. What do you think the odds become if you only keep the viable numbers, the ones actually picked by the players, and respin the rest? How many spins would you need to generate a jackpot winner?
Now what do you think the odds shrink to if the balls fall according to certain rules emanating from their nature - ie, a 26 will tend to appear only if three odd numbers draw in a row?
I'm not sure we're on the same page. You eventually will then have a 100% chance of generating a jackpot winner, which is what I said at first. I think I'm getting lost in the analogies though, when you say balls falling according to their nature are you talking about chemical properties that may facilitate certain amino acids to bind near each other in a sequence?
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:52 pm
(April 1, 2016 at 5:12 pm)AAA Wrote: The chance that someone wins the lottery is 100%.
Nope! Unless every single possible combination is played in a single game. In PowerBall the odds are 1 in 292,201,338. If 292,201,337 combinations are played, the the odds are still not 100%.
You make people miserable and there's nothing they can do about it, just like god.
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:53 pm
(This post was last modified: April 1, 2016 at 5:56 pm by Cyberman.)
(April 1, 2016 at 5:51 pm)AAA Wrote: I'm not sure we're on the same page. You eventually will then have a 100% chance of generating a jackpot winner, which is what I said at first. I think I'm getting lost in the analogies though, when you say balls falling according to their nature are you talking about chemical properties that may facilitate certain amino acids to bind near each other in a sequence?
Nope, you got it. That's why casinos don't work to evolutionary principles. And yes, atoms, molecules etc tend to combine in certain structures according to their nature; all of which skew the probabilities.
Interestingly, I was walking on the beach at Newquay the other day, during a surprise lull in the storm, and I was struck by the incredible order of it all. Sure, there were irregularities, but in general the particles of sand were always near the water, while larger pebbles, rocks and boulders were arranged in increasing order of size depending on their distance from the shoreline. What are the odds of this happening all at once by blind chance?
At the age of five, Skagra decided emphatically that God did not exist. This revelation tends to make most people in the universe who have it react in one of two ways - with relief or with despair. Only Skagra responded to it by thinking, 'Wait a second. That means there's a situation vacant.'
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RE: The Problem with Christians
April 1, 2016 at 5:54 pm
(April 1, 2016 at 5:52 pm)IATIA Wrote: (April 1, 2016 at 5:12 pm)AAA Wrote: The chance that someone wins the lottery is 100%.
Nope! Unless every single possible combination is played in a single game. In PowerBall the odds are 1 in 292,201,338. If 292,201,337 combinations are played, the the odds are still not 100%.
Thanks, I am aware now. I think you missed the point though.
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