One billion A.D. A question for evolution fans.

[leo-rcc]

Well if you pick the time around the plague, the life expectancy is 25 years, but that is to be considered an anomaly. It might very well be that previous to greek and roman time the life expectancy is lower, but I have no data on that. I do know that a lot of people tend to think that the middle ages had a very low life expectancy which is not really the case if you exclude the epidemics.

London still had the plague till 1666 of course so it was for centuries a big problem but not as much as between 1300-1400.

[Edwardo Piet]

Well what I heard is before any medicine at all was invented. Average expectancy was apparently 25.

[leo-rcc]

Even early stone age men must have figured out that some plants help to reduce fever, or help stop bleeding, just as some native tribes in the Amazon and Africa still do today. That is also some form of medicine. So I would contend that "before medicine was invented" is not a legitimate timeframe, unless you define what time "before medicine was invented" is. It might well be that for cavemen or similar humans the life expectancy was 25, I don't know.

The problem with averages like that is that infant deaths count as 0 or 1, that of course lowers the averages with high infant mortality rates.

[Edwardo Piet]

I just checked it isn't the "atheist" video so it must have been another video then. I'm not sure if Harris said something on the subject. I think Hitchens said that in stone age times it was like 20 or something. I think. And I'm not sure if thats reliable or not, he has been known to get his facts wrong (apparently).
Maybe it was "modern medicine" when did that start?
Most of this (if not all) is speculation, so I'll try and look into it.

[leo-rcc]

In order to figure out the 25 years you mention (I am not doubting that the figure must come from somewhere) I did find this:

http://historymedren.about.com/library/w...12200c.htm

On infant mortalitiy rate:

The highest estimated percentage I have encountered is a 50% death rate, although 30% is the more common figure. These figures include the high number of infants who died within days after birth from little-understood and wholly unpreventable illnesses that modern science has thankfully overcome.

Now if we take the 30% as the low figure, and 25 as the average life expectancy, that means you would need 30% of the population to live to the age of 50-60.

Also this one I found:

http://www.hyw.com/books/history/Fertilit.htm

The biggest danger for all children was surviving childhood, particularly the first few years, when a childs immune system was getting itself organized. After that, males had to worry about accidents (most of the population engaged in manual labor, and the nobles had hunting accidents and the rigors of warfare to worry about.) Once a male passed age 40, and became an "old man," he generally stayed away from dangerous activities and had good prospects of living to a ripe old age.

If your sources say 25 years, and my book from 1990 says 30 to 35, it might be that in the 18 years the figure is dropped in light of new evidence. But that doesn't mean that people just dropped dead at 25 years of course.

[Edwardo Piet]

Yes lol its an average. I found it on an atheist youtube statistics video that I can't find now (could've been deleted because it was wrong of course). Because the thing is I have looked and I know now that its not the famous "Atheist" video it was another one.
I think Sam Harris might have mentioned the same or a similar statistic. But I'm not sure, I could've (perhaps easily) imagined that. I'm not sure.
I think Hitchens said that IN STONE AGE TIMES, average was about 20 years (or perhaps he said, most died at about 20 I'm not sure which). Mostly dying because of problems with the teeth, teeth and gum disease etc.
And yes, if it IS 25 that is on average of course. Everyone didn't just die at 25!

[LukeMC]

Maybe we could evolve eyes at the backs of our heads? How amazing would that be. I can't even conceptualise the mental experience of that
Or evolve some sort of bypass in our throats so we don't choke. From what Dr Wickham has discussed with me, the reason we choke is because of the way our voice box developped, and other animals don't have this problem because their nasal pasage connects lower down the throat? I may be completellllllly wrong here

There are alot of creatures capable of processing an image from light-sensetive patches on their faces (called eyes), could the same be done for different waves? Ultra Violet images? X-ray images? Infra-red? Perhaps one eye could be light sensetive, and the other be UV sensetive? That'd create an awesome picture surely?

[Purple Rabbit]

Very nice question for some wild speculation. In a billion years from now and under the assumption that man has survived himself (sic), I expect, man will long have cast aside his organic hull. Long before that man will have mastered every aspect of genetic engeneering and every aspect of duplicating and improving mental capacities in non organic environments. In other words, man will have reached the point of near total control, called the singularity, over personal existence. Maybe even personal existence will have been replaced by multisymbiotic existence. Where shall I stop, a billion years is indeed a very long time. Maybe man has made himself some new universes with creatures in it on the verge of intellectual capabilities pondering how on planet X it is possible to exist.

[Edwardo Piet]

You see if I try to be realistic I can't think of anything because I couldn't know. I couldn't even think of a slightly likely possibility because I have no idea.
Is it ok to just make anything up for speculation? Or does it have to be somewhat realistic/believable?
I mean I could just say something like: Perhaps our hearts will evolve to develop intelligence like the brain somehow and the brain will also become more heart like so human brains will also be a big heart and human hearts will also be a big brain. So they'll have like a brain and a heart in the chest and a brain and a heart in the head. Totally ridiculous idea really!
And of course I don't see how that would make any sense whatsoever! But if its just imagination! I can't think of anything believable.
I have no idea really.
I'm just speculating weirdness here.

[Dotard]

Didn't read the entire thread so I don't know if this has been mentioned.

I think it (humans expanding in different directions thus different planetary conditions and developing differing cultures etc in the future) will be something like this:

EvE

Take a few minutes to read a bit of the background stuffs. Been in this Virtual Universe for a year and 1/2 now. Taking a break from it and playing on forums like this one. My character's name is Dotard in there also.