Predictions for the next four years

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I predict that in the next four years, I'll turn 50 years old. I know this sounds like a pretty wild prognostication, but I stand by it.

Boru

[I_am_not_mafia]

It's going to be very difficult to predict , there are too many unknown quantities.

It could be that government just eats itself with infighting and weak leadership as the country is ruined over the first two years, the Democrats then win the mid-term elections and you have a lame duck president for the next two years. That's the best case scenario.

Or it could be that the Republicans avoid the in-fighting and use the opportunity to manipulate Trump and wheedle their own agendas to create a semi-theocracy. The Republican party are ideologically driven, which means that unlike most other politicians they have long term goals. Indoctrinating the next generation of children doesn't help you get elected in the next election, but a zealous Christian will want this because they want to shape society to their own world view.

Worker's rights and trade union power will also be reduced due to lobbyists and corporate pressure to increase profits, especially when there is a religious motivation for firing someone. For example because of their sexuality, their biological gender or gender identity or if they are an atheist or a different religion. This won't be sold as being able to persecute other people but rather as protection of religious sensibilities. This means that society becomes more conformist and people become more afraid to express alternative views for fear of losing their jobs and being ostracised. This allows racism to flourish which then allows the government to make a minority a scape goat and take the blame for everything going wrong. Further exacerbated by the demonisation of political correctness.

Add to this a new House of un-American activities, mass surveillance, a flawed legal system, a prison industrial complex, and a detention centre where enemies of America can be withheld and tortured indefinitely without trial, America already has all the necessary ingredients already in place. This is why each step on the path towards fascism is called the thin end of the wedge. It happens when well-meaning governments of the past put in place mechanisms that can later be abused by ideologically driven authoritarian governments.

The government will always look at what powers it currently has to achieve what it wants. So for example, it doesn't take long for anti-terror laws to be used for something not in any way related to terrorism. It will try to expand upon these powers.

Most parties become more complacent, confident and demanding the longer they stay in power. Trump and the Republicans may start off trying to appease their non-voters, but they will give up by the end of the first term as the number of scandals increases. The most obvious means for increasing support again will be to go to war. This can be as simple as letting a terrorist attack happen on home soil with a quiet word to the director of some security agency, or overreacting to something another country does. People will then have to either band together or be accused of not being patriotic. And in a more conformist society with fewer worker's rights, this accusation will have real world job implications. This is more likely to happen the closer you are to an election.

The administration will look at existing rights that stop them doing what they want. This means your constitution. This is difficult because many Americans see it almost like a religious text. But the Bible has been re-written and interpreted multiple times, so can the constitution. It's not like it's religiously followed now anyway, much like the Bible isn't. For example does anyone truly believe that there is an absolute separation of church and state? Court cases in defence of the constitution can be over-turned. As before, each step will seem reasonable to give people time to adapt to the new norm. You already accept the idea of amendments after all. Why not start re-interpreting them, say to take into account inflation? For example, the seventh amendment reads "In Suits at common law, where the value in controversy shall exceed twenty dollars, the right of trial by jury shall be preserved ...". Nebulous concepts can be re-interpreted, such as freedom of speech. After all, no one would argue that releasing state secrets is acceptable freedom of speech even though technically you could argue that to be true.

Even if the government doesn't or can't go down this route, the constitution can become increasingly irrelevant if no one can hold them to account because they can't successfully sue the government. After all, the NSA performing mass surveillance on Americans is unconstitutional. Guantanamo Bay holding and torturing Americans indefinitely is unconstitutional.

Then the gerrymandering will take place to increase the chances of the Republican party winning the next election. This can be done in a number of subtle ways rather than outright vote rigging which is too risky. You just need to make voting harder for the the supporters of the opposition, or make it seem a waste of time. For example by felony disenfranchisement. Make it so voting rights are more likely to be removed and less likely to be restored, and also make protest a sure way to become a felon. Do this and you've removed the voters most likely to vote against you and at the same time stamped down on protests taking place. A few agents infiltrating grass roots movements can give you as much information as you need and allow you to discredit them. This has already happened in the UK where a cop even fathered a child with an activist as a cover.. You should all be familiar with Watergate. Remember, it's in the government's interest if protests are violent. It allows them to be denounced and for new laws to be brought in.

Then the administration gets another 4 years in power allowing it to become more confident in what it can get away with. By then the world will be a very different place.

[brewer]

There will be some pretty damn fine entertainment but you'll need the ability to look past the drama.

[abaris]

The only prediction one can safely make is that America will shift to the right. It's not so much the loud mouthed claims Trump has made but Congress and Senate being firmly in the hands of Republicans, with religious rightwingers up close and personal in Trump's staff. I guess there will be some roll backs on quite a few social bills and issues.

[Crossless2.0]

Interest rates rise. The Vikings fail again and again and again and again to win a Super Bowl.

#lowhangingfruitisjustassweet

[Expired]

Excited penguin will leave 5427 times.

[c172]

The alt-right will grow even more and become mainstreamed even more.

[TaraJo]

Keeping an open mind until after January 20th. Can't tell much of anything right now.

Sure we can.  Look at his behavior now.  Look how he expects nicities and compliance with all the people he spent the past two years trash talking.  Look who he's trying to put in cabinet positions (and look how many of them are white supremacists).  

He claims we're going to have change and I agree, we will.  But change isn't always good.  I mean, the country (world?) changed a lot on 9/11, but change certainly wasn't a good thing.  And change in the form of a second great depression wouldn't be especially good, either.  

Truth is, he's been so much of a hot head on twitter, that unless the first change is his behavior on there, I can see the next four years being extremely tumultuous.

Interest rates rise. The Vikings fail again and again and again and again to win a Super Bowl.

#lowhangingfruitisjustassweet

Well, y'never know.  I mean, in 2012 I would have predicted 4 years without the Cubs winning the world series. :p

[Crossless2.0]

Keeping an open mind until after January 20th. Can't tell much of anything right now.

Sure we can.  Look at his behavior now.  Look how he expects nicities and compliance with all the people he spent the past two years trash talking.  Look who he's trying to put in cabinet positions (and look how many of them are white supremacists).  

He claims we're going to have change and I agree, we will.  But change isn't always good.  I mean, the country (world?) changed a lot on 9/11, but change certainly wasn't a good thing.  And change in the form of a second great depression wouldn't be especially good, either.  

Truth is, he's been so much of a hot head on twitter, that unless the first change is his behavior on there, I can see the next four years being extremely tumultuous.

Interest rates rise. The Vikings fail again and again and again and again to win a Super Bowl.

#lowhangingfruitisjustassweet

Well, y'never know.  I mean, in 2012 I would have predicted 4 years without the Cubs winning the world series. :p

For me, it's practically an article of faith that Minnesota will not win a Super Bowl until the season after I'm dead. And I don't plan to check out any time soon just to make life more bearable for liberal Vikings fans during Trump's presidency. 

[Ravenshire]

I simply hope, whatever happens, people will finally realize the system has become too corrupt and broken to be fixed from the inside. No Democrat, no Republican is going to work for our benefit. The only beneficial changes will come from the outside. Either from minority parties or from true independents who's souls aren't owned by the interests on Wall St. and it's lily too late even then.

I'm not sure the sinking ship can be saved or if it's even worth saving any more.