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The Human race: A sci-fi story
#11
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 12:41 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: "My point is that we are the first civilization in this universe, an outlier. " 200 trillion galaxies in the known universe and you make that claim?

I know star trek and star wars are alluring and cooler, but we have no evidence of another civilization in the universe. It is largely sterile.

the famed Drake Equation is essentially guesswork, a long string of arbitrary variables that can be set to any value we choose. We choose by inference. For instance, intelligent life happened here, then we assign a number saying it can happen over there. Of course we haven’t the slightest clue what the conditions are over there, nor have we gathered the slightest clue regarding how DNA formed over here. Without knowing how DNA formed over here, we cannot infer how it would happen again over there, without knowing either how DNA forms out of nothingness, nor the conditions over there. We have no idea how DNA began. The very first barrier, how did we happen, is an unknown, and inferring any further is a null hypothesis.

It takes 3 billion base pairs to make the human genome. In and of itself, that means the probability of intelligent life happening again is already 3 billion to 1, using oversimplified statistics in our own known environment.



As an example of a low estimate, combining NASA's star formation rates, the rare Earth hypothesis value of fp*ne*fl = 10−5, 
Mayr's view on intelligence arising, Drake's view of communication, and Shermer's's estimate of lifetime: R* = 7/year, fp*ne*fl = 10^−5, 
fi = 10^−9, fc = 0.2, and L = 304 years gives: N = 7 × 10^−5 × 10^−9 × 0.2 × 304 = 4 x 10^−12 i.e., N=4 x 10^−12 (one trillionth) intelligent species in our galaxy (there are one hundred billion to one trillion galaxies in the universe) suggesting that we are alone in this galaxy, and most likely the observable universe. That is, at one trillionth a chance, it would require one trillion galaxies to be 68% certain of there being 1 intelligent species in the entire cosmos, using a standard Bell curve approach. However, at 1/10 the required lower limit of galaxies required (there are only one hundred billion galaxies in the known cosmos-not 200 trillion), the probability drifts so close to zero it is functionally zero. The fact that we are here is anomalous in every aspect.

10^-12 is quite small compared to the odds of forming DNA capable of forming a basic living organism at random, which is 10^40,000.

We are alone, the universe is a sterile void besides us.
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#12
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 11:29 am)tjakey Wrote: If we are the ony hope in the cosmos for "intelligence", there is no hope of intelligence in the cosmos.

[Image: tumblr_o9yu6yzKfd1tesuaxo1_500.gif]
At the age of five, Skagra decided emphatically that God did not exist.  This revelation tends to make most people in the universe who have it react in one of two ways - with relief or with despair.  Only Skagra responded to it by thinking, 'Wait a second.  That means there's a situation vacant.'
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#13
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 12:55 pm)ph445 Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 12:41 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: "My point is that we are the first civilization in this universe, an outlier. " 200 trillion galaxies in the known universe and you make that claim?

I know star trek and star wars are alluring and cooler, but we have no evidence of another civilization in the universe. It is largely sterile.

Bullshit.
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#14
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 1:01 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 12:55 pm)ph445 Wrote: I know star trek and star wars are alluring and cooler, but we have no evidence of another civilization in the universe. It is largely sterile.

Bullshit.

your initial claim that there are 200 trillion galaxies is bullshit
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#15
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 1:05 pm)ph445 Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 1:01 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: Bullshit.

your initial claim that there are 200 trillion galaxies is bullshit

You're right, I was too lazy to look it up, it's actually 2 trillion. Now, wipe the poop of your claim that we're the only intelligent life in any of those two trillion galaxies, now, then, or ever, and trot out some support for that claim. Have you visited all of them, checked each star, during all phases of each planet's life, from Day One to the End of the Universe? 

I'll be here when you get back.
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#16
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 4:08 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 1:05 pm)ph445 Wrote: your initial claim that there are 200 trillion galaxies is bullshit

You're right, I was too lazy to look it up, it's actually 2 trillion. Now, wipe the poop of your claim that we're the only intelligent life in any of those two trillion galaxies, now, then, or ever, and trot out some support for that claim. Have you visited all of them, checked each star, during all phases of each planet's life, from Day One to the End of the Universe? 

I'll be here when you get back.
almost, 100 billion does not equal 2 trillion. if you read my post on the probabilities regarding intelligent life you would understand more. Your argument is sounding similar to a theist assuming there is a God. You have to prove ETs exist, something you cannot do. Its like the argument the universe had a beginning-therefore it had something that had to have initiated its existence, it sounds logical, yet doesn't have a shred of evidence. Your claim regarding ETs is similar to this. I presented the unlikelihood of DNA arising by pure change AGAIN in this universe. Roughly 1 in 10^40000. This fact alone eliminates the likelihood of it happening again. We are an anomaly.
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#17
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 12:55 pm)ph445 Wrote: It takes 3 billion base pairs to make the human genome. In and of itself, that means the probability of intelligent life happening again is already 3 billion to 1, using oversimplified statistics in our own known environment.

You make huge nonsensical errors in both directions here: the probability of 3 billion base pairs correctly assembling by chance is insanely vastly smaller than 3 billion to 1. 3 billion to one is more like the probability for 16 base pairs.

Also, the whole argument is nonsense because evolution doesn't randomly assemble the finished DNA.
The fool hath said in his heart, There is a God. They are corrupt, they have done abominable works, there is none that doeth good.
Psalm 14, KJV revised edition

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#18
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 6:44 pm)Alex K Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 12:55 pm)ph445 Wrote: It takes 3 billion base pairs to make the human genome. In and of itself, that means the probability of intelligent life happening again is already 3 billion to 1, using oversimplified statistics in our own known environment.

You make huge nonsensical errors in both directions here: the probability of 3 billion base pairs correctly assembling by chance is insanely vastly smaller than 3 billion to 1. 3 billion to one is more like the probability for 15 base pairs.

Also, the whole argument is nonsense because evolution doesn't randomly assemble the finished DNA.

This is given our perfect environment for life on earth. Move one adenine out of place in a DNA sequence and an entire species fails to emerge. Yet, there are approximately 9 million successful species on this planet. This isn’t because the misplacement of the adenine caused another species (Darwinism), the misplacement of the adenine prevented 9 million and 1 species. DNA is extremely sensitive to how it is compiled. 

Look at my other posts, the likelihood of this occuring randomly is more to the order of 10^40000


there are about two thousand enzymes, and the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only one part in (10^20)^2000 = 10^40,000, an outrageously small probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup. We are an anomaly.
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#19
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 5:35 pm)ph445 Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 4:08 pm)Gawdzilla Sama Wrote: You're right, I was too lazy to look it up, it's actually 2 trillion. Now, wipe the poop of your claim that we're the only intelligent life in any of those two trillion galaxies, now, then, or ever, and trot out some support for that claim. Have you visited all of them, checked each star, during all phases of each planet's life, from Day One to the End of the Universe? 

I'll be here when you get back.
almost, 100 billion does not equal 2 trillion. if you read my post on the probabilities regarding intelligent life you would understand more. Your argument is sounding similar to a theist assuming there is a God. You have to prove ETs exist, something you cannot do. Its like the argument the universe had a beginning-therefore it had something that had to have initiated its existence, it sounds logical, yet doesn't have a shred of evidence. Your claim regarding ETs is similar to this. I presented the unlikelihood of DNA arising by pure change AGAIN in this universe. Roughly 1 in 10^40000. This fact alone eliminates the likelihood of it happening again. We are an anomaly.

Your data is old, son. And your argument is 'WE'RE FUCKING SPECIAL!!!!', nothing more.
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#20
RE: The Human race: A sci-fi story
(July 23, 2017 at 6:53 pm)ph445 Wrote:
(July 23, 2017 at 6:44 pm)Alex K Wrote: You make huge nonsensical errors in both directions here: the probability of 3 billion base pairs correctly assembling by chance is insanely vastly smaller than 3 billion to 1. 3 billion to one is more like the probability for 15 base pairs.

Also, the whole argument is nonsense because evolution doesn't randomly assemble the finished DNA.

This is given our perfect environment for life on earth. Move one adenine out of place in a DNA sequence and an entire species fails to emerge. Yet, there are approximately 9 million successful species on this planet. This isn’t because the misplacement of the adenine caused another species (Darwinism), the misplacement of the adenine prevented 9 million and 1 species. DNA is extremely sensitive to how it is compiled. 

Look at my other posts, the likelihood of this occuring randomly is more to the order of 10^40000


there are about two thousand enzymes, and the chance of obtaining them all in a random trial is only one part in (10^20)^2000 = 10^40,000, an outrageously small probability that could not be faced even if the whole universe consisted of organic soup. We are an anomaly.

You forget evolution by natural selection which completely changes the situation.
The fool hath said in his heart, There is a God. They are corrupt, they have done abominable works, there is none that doeth good.
Psalm 14, KJV revised edition

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