Are lockdowns justified?

[FlatAssembler]

A strict lockdown implemented -at any time- will slow the rate of spread

The evidence tells us otherwise...

Here [in Europe] Lockdown is positive, suggesting that countries that implemented the lockdown have, on average, more New Cases than in countries that did not. This is possibly due to the fact that in the countries that implemented lockdown, the spread of COVID-19 was already advanced compared with other European countries.

And that is a study that is generally supportive of lockdowns. The counter-evidence just cannot be honestly ignored.

have been more useful at the onset

You know, implementing a lockdown over an illness you have no good data about how deadly or contagious it is... maybe that is not a good idea. The majority of the supposed global pandemics, that the experts were warning about, ended up killing less than a thousand people in the USA. It is important not to overreact on rumors. Sure, COVID-19 actually turned out to be deadly (though not nearly as deadly as the early predictions forecasted), but what about all those global pandemics that have not? Implementing a lockdown because of a suspected deadly pandemic does way more harm than good.

the absurd extent that you put work in painting yourself as a doorknob licker?

This is the most ridiculous straw-man I have read in quite some time.

and as far as your "work in the social sciences". Stop it.

I see no reason why. And I also see no reason to think you are familiar with my work. OK, here is the abstract of my newest paper which I am planning to publish:

What will the language we speak now look like in the future? To a large extent, that question is impossible to answer. The vocabulary of our language will gain, but also forget (How many young people today know what a floppy disk is, yet alone what a fiacre is?), words related to technology, the development of which is impossible to predict. The vocabulary of our language will also receive words from languages that will be used in international communication, which is dependent on politics, and it is also impossible to predict long-term (If you told somebody in Roman Empire that, one day, a Germanic language will be a global language, and that most of the languages all over the world will have loan-words from it, they will look at you oddly.). Morphology and syntax follow some scientific laws (analytic languages evolve into agglutinative ones, agglutinative ones evolve into fusional languages, and fusional languages evolve into analytic ones.), but those laws are difficult to model computationally and probably full of exceptions (Armenian language, for example, is an agglutinative language that evolved from the fusional Indo-European proto-language, but there is no reason to think there was a time when it was an analytic language.). Morphology and syntax are also probably somewhat influenced by politics (It seems as though languages with many adult learners, such as English or Late Latin, tend to have simpler morphology but more complicated syntax. Similarly, some syntactic structures that recently appeared in the Croatian language are probably an influence of the English language.). Nevertheless, is it possible to predict how the phonology of a language will develop? Here, I have researched exactly that, I have tried to make a computer model of the phonological evolution of languages. Although I was not particularly successful at that, I believe my work can come helpful to others, at least not to repeat the mistakes I have made, because, as far as I know, nobody has done anything like that. I have also researched whether computer models can be used in etymology, and, related to that, what effect do different parts of the grammar have on the entropy of human languages. I came to the conclusion that, in the Croatian language, phonology takes away 1.62 bits per symbol of entropy of consonant pairs, that syntax takes away 0.21 bits per symbol, and that morphology takes away 1.57 bits per symbol. Only 5.99 bits per symbol of entropy of pairs of consonants is semantics.

So, why should I stop with that?

No covid variants appear to transmit outdoors.

I am quite sure they do spread outdoors somewhat, as Croatia had a spike of COVID cases after the Croatian government organized the commemoration of Vukovar Massacre, which was attended by 30'000 people. Of course, they were quite close to one another there, quite unlike what people otherwise tend to do outside.

Citation needed

Seriously? From a quick Google search:

the number of children and teens hospitalized after suicide attempts went up from 67 in 2019 to 108 in 2020. And October 2020 saw a 250% increase in these numbers over the previous October

And stay-at-home orders make perfect sense otherwise it's not really a lockdown.

Stay-at-home orders are responsible for Vitamin D deficiency, which makes COVID more severe.

Hmmm...it didn't go away last summer.

The cases and mortality from COVID were very low in summer just about everywhere. But, yeah, I guess you haven't even looked at the data, but just looking at left-wing headlines.

Touching infected objects can still spread it.

As I have cited multiple times by now, even CDC admits the risk of getting COVID from touching contaminated objects is very low. It was even on New York Times:

There’s really no evidence that anyone has ever gotten Covid-19 by touching a contaminated surface.

[The Grand Nudger]

Yes, the evidence that you just presented, should not be ignored.  


You're right, it's important not to overreact.  It's a good thing we didn't overreact to this, as it's only killed half a million of us even after we had good data about how deadly and contagious it was.  Covid continues it's work today, in fact, and I'm sure you'll look back in future satisfied that you were on the right side here, covids side, in it's tireless apolitical crusade against the scourge of humanity...or, at least, americans.

Rest of the world is lucky we didn't panic and press the button for good measure - if you ask me. That seems on brand for our flirtation with utter lunacy as we came into 2020.

[Reforged]

I mean theres a way to figure out if coming out lockdown is a good idea, look at the countries that are not observing social distancing and their recorded infection rates.
Do you like what you see? The answers no, because what you see is India and oh my goodness if that isn't one of the most vertical slopes I have ever seen. They've barely tested a *fraction* of their population yet and we're already at 15% infected of what they have. Mortality rate? 2104 yesterday but you know that figures not accurate because most people dying don't even make it to a hospital. They're all packed.
Granted they have other problems but the correlation is pretty clear. Decrease in lockdown results in more patients and therein lies the delicate balance which determines whether you get lifted to the hospital in an ambulance or to a tent in a rented ice-cream van.

[Abaddon_ire]

A strict lockdown implemented -at any time- will slow the rate of spread

The evidence tells us otherwise...

Here [in Europe] Lockdown is positive, suggesting that countries that implemented the lockdown have, on average, more New Cases than in countries that did not. This is possibly due to the fact that in the countries that implemented lockdown, the spread of COVID-19 was already advanced compared with other European countries.

And that is a study that is generally supportive of lockdowns. The counter-evidence just cannot be honestly ignored.

LOL. The paper you cited actually says you are wrong. Reading fail for you.

and as far as your "work in the social sciences". Stop it.

I see no reason why. And I also see no reason to think you are familiar with my work. OK, here is the abstract of my newest paper which I am planning to publish:

What will the language we speak now look like in the future? To a large extent, that question is impossible to answer. The vocabulary of our language will gain, but also forget (How many young people today know what a floppy disk is, yet alone what a fiacre is?), words related to technology, the development of which is impossible to predict. The vocabulary of our language will also receive words from languages that will be used in international communication, which is dependent on politics, and it is also impossible to predict long-term (If you told somebody in Roman Empire that, one day, a Germanic language will be a global language, and that most of the languages all over the world will have loan-words from it, they will look at you oddly.). Morphology and syntax follow some scientific laws (analytic languages evolve into agglutinative ones, agglutinative ones evolve into fusional languages, and fusional languages evolve into analytic ones.), but those laws are difficult to model computationally and probably full of exceptions (Armenian language, for example, is an agglutinative language that evolved from the fusional Indo-European proto-language, but there is no reason to think there was a time when it was an analytic language.). Morphology and syntax are also probably somewhat influenced by politics (It seems as though languages with many adult learners, such as English or Late Latin, tend to have simpler morphology but more complicated syntax. Similarly, some syntactic structures that recently appeared in the Croatian language are probably an influence of the English language.). Nevertheless, is it possible to predict how the phonology of a language will develop? Here, I have researched exactly that, I have tried to make a computer model of the phonological evolution of languages. Although I was not particularly successful at that, I believe my work can come helpful to others, at least not to repeat the mistakes I have made, because, as far as I know, nobody has done anything like that. I have also researched whether computer models can be used in etymology, and, related to that, what effect do different parts of the grammar have on the entropy of human languages. I came to the conclusion that, in the Croatian language, phonology takes away 1.62 bits per symbol of entropy of consonant pairs, that syntax takes away 0.21 bits per symbol, and that morphology takes away 1.57 bits per symbol. Only 5.99 bits per symbol of entropy of pairs of consonants is semantics.

So, why should I stop with that?

Because such studies were completed before you were even born. Nothing in your abstract is new.

[arewethereyet]

As for the Vitamin D thing...what a grasping for something to say that lockdowns are the ultimate cause of severe COVID due to a vitamin D deficiency...

Here's a couple links.

https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-cond...q-20493088

"There isn't enough data to recommend use of vitamin D to prevent infection with the virus that causes COVID-19 or to treat COVID-19, according to the National Institutes of Health and the World Health Organization."

and

https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/vitamin-d-covid-19

"When it comes to COVID-19, the world is eager for a cure—or even a quick fix to prevent infection, but there isn’t enough evidence to suggest that either has much to do with vitamin D, Yale Medicine physicians say. "


There's not enough evidence...not enough data...it's not yet been determined to be a thing. Yet you harp on it.

Keep throwing your conspiracy shit at the wall...there are a few here who are right there with you.

[Reforged]

Keep throwing you conspiracy shit at the wall...there are a few here who are right there with you.

Covid shot JFK and planned 9/11. I overheard it when I was being experimented on for the MK-Ultra program to be turned into a Manchurian candidate.

[arewethereyet]

Keep throwing you conspiracy shit at the wall...there are a few here who are right there with you.

Covid shot JFK and planned 9/11. I overheard it when I was being experimented on for the MK-Ultra program to be turned into a Manchurian candidate.

That's where all good information comes from.

[The Grand Nudger]

-and that's why some other random country should open up and force their necessary workers to die for our dow. Who the fuck is going to flip my burgers if the serfs are made to quarantine?

[The Architect Of Fate]

Seriously? From a quick Google search

Good you provided a source now my response is it's irrelevant as it's merely a condemnation of society's lack of social care not an objection to lockdowns.

Stay-at-home orders are responsible for Vitamin D deficiency, which makes COVID more severe.

This has been debunked over and over on this thread 

As I have cited multiple times by now, even CDC admits the risk of getting COVID from touching contaminated objects is very low. It was even on New York Times:

Low doesn't mean doesn't happen. Even your own acknowledge it can happen and its prevention is conditional as well as its spread 

So again you fail

[FlatAssembler]

LOL. The paper you cited actually says you are wrong. Reading fail for you.

The fact, cited by many anti-lockdown papers, as well as this pro-lockdown paper, is that the strigency of the lockdown was, at the beginning of the pandemic in Europe, correlated positively with COVID-19 cases per capita, as well as deaths per capita. And the same seems to be true (though I haven't done a precise statistical analysis on that, nor have I seen anybody doing that) in the USA now, as the COVID-19 cases are falling in Texas, but they are rising in many USA states with mask mandates and lockdowns. The fact that there are such correlations severely undermines the notion that lockdowns are effective.
And the computer models that were used to argue for lockdowns are wrong, because, first of all, most of them do not model nursing home transmissions at all. Read this, it might change the way you see the world: https://www.aier.org/article/the-failure...n-we-knew/

Because such studies were completed before you were even born. Nothing in your abstract is new.

To the best of my knowledge, they have not been. Though there have been, as I noted in the footnotes, some attempts to model phonological evolution of languages, no such model was validated using real-world data. And I am rather certain nobody has, thus far, tried to apply information theory to the names of places in Croatia. I have read a lot about the names of places in Croatia, nothing like that is mentioned in any of the papers I have read.