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Bellwether, is that really a thing?
November 2, 2021 at 6:43 pm
In all my time paying attention in politics over the decades, the word "Bellwether" is a word used by political pundits and news media. But it it really like predicting the weather?
Just like the "cone of uncertainty" when meteorologists and weather anchors predict the path of a hurricane. Of course that "cone" in weather is far more accurate than political predictions.
I was shocked that Trump won in 16. All the indicators were pointing to Hillary. But in 2019 everyone on the right thought Trump would win.
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RE: Bellwether, is that really a thing?
November 2, 2021 at 7:15 pm
Nay_Sayer: “Nothing is impossible if you dream big enough, or in this case, nothing is impossible if you use a barrel of KY Jelly and a miniature horse.”
Wiser words were never spoken.
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RE: Bellwether, is that really a thing?
November 2, 2021 at 7:17 pm
Oh, okay. I think he’s talking about this:
https://politicaldictionary.com/words/bellwether/
I’ll retract my Brule meme. For now…
Nay_Sayer: “Nothing is impossible if you dream big enough, or in this case, nothing is impossible if you use a barrel of KY Jelly and a miniature horse.”
Wiser words were never spoken.
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RE: Bellwether, is that really a thing?
November 2, 2021 at 7:20 pm
(November 2, 2021 at 6:43 pm)Brian37 Wrote: In all my time paying attention in politics over the decades, the word "Bellwether" is a word used by political pundits and news media. But it it really like predicting the weather?
Just like the "cone of uncertainty" when meteorologists and weather anchors predict the path of a hurricane. Of course that "cone" in weather is far more accurate than political predictions.
I was shocked that Trump won in 16. All the indicators were pointing to Hillary. But in 2019 everyone on the right thought Trump would win.
Yes, it’s a real thing. No, it’s not like predicting the weather.
Boru
‘I can’t be having with this.’ - Esmeralda Weatherwax
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RE: Bellwether, is that really a thing?
November 2, 2021 at 7:48 pm
Only when it' s in accordance with the dualopoly....
Dixville Notch NH used to be considered a leading bellwether for the US Presidential election - until it went nearly unanimously for the Libertarian candidate.....
The media has soundly ignored them since...
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RE: Bellwether, is that really a thing?
November 3, 2021 at 3:47 pm
Looking up Dixville Notch, it doesn't seem like it was ever much of a Bellwether. The closest it came was voting for Dubya and Obama in both of their elections. Well, that and predicting the Republican candidate between 1968 and 2008 (plus 2012 if you count the Romney-Huntsman tie). And the only time I can find them overwhelmingly voting Libertarian was in 1992, but that was only because they decided to hold a Libertarian primary that year. When the general election came, Bush Sr. won overwhelmingly in Dixville Notch.
It seems their significance is more in the fact that they're one of a handful of communities that holds its votes at midnight (and certainly the largest of those communities) and often the first to report their results.
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