In all my time paying attention in politics over the decades, the word "Bellwether" is a word used by political pundits and news media. But it it really like predicting the weather?

Just like the "cone of uncertainty" when meteorologists and weather anchors predict the path of a hurricane. Of course that "cone" in weather is far more accurate than political predictions. 

I was shocked that Trump won in 16. All the indicators were pointing to Hillary. But in 2019 everyone on the right thought Trump would win.

(November 2, 2021 at 6:43 pm)Brian37 Wrote: In all my time paying attention in politics over the decades, the word "Bellwether" is a word used by political pundits and news media. But it it really like predicting the weather?

Just like the "cone of uncertainty" when meteorologists and weather anchors predict the path of a hurricane. Of course that "cone" in weather is far more accurate than political predictions. 

I was shocked that Trump won in 16. All the indicators were pointing to Hillary. But in 2019 everyone on the right thought Trump would win.

WUT?

bellwether
[ˈbelˌweT͟Hər]
NOUN
the leading sheep of a flock, with a bell on its neck.

WTF moment for today.

Oh, okay. I think he’s talking about this:

https://politicaldictionary.com/words/bellwether/

I’ll retract my Brule meme. For now…

(November 2, 2021 at 6:43 pm)Brian37 Wrote: In all my time paying attention in politics over the decades, the word "Bellwether" is a word used by political pundits and news media. But it it really like predicting the weather?

Just like the "cone of uncertainty" when meteorologists and weather anchors predict the path of a hurricane. Of course that "cone" in weather is far more accurate than political predictions. 

I was shocked that Trump won in 16. All the indicators were pointing to Hillary. But in 2019 everyone on the right thought Trump would win.

Yes, it’s a real thing. No, it’s not like predicting the weather.

Boru

Only when it' s in accordance with the dualopoly....


Dixville Notch NH used to be considered a leading bellwether for the US Presidential election - until it went nearly unanimously for the Libertarian candidate..... 

The media has soundly ignored them since...

Looking up Dixville Notch, it doesn't seem like it was ever much of a Bellwether. The closest it came was voting for Dubya and Obama in both of their elections. Well, that and predicting the Republican candidate between 1968 and 2008 (plus 2012 if you count the Romney-Huntsman tie). And the only time I can find them overwhelmingly voting Libertarian was in 1992, but that was only because they decided to hold a Libertarian primary that year. When the general election came, Bush Sr. won overwhelmingly in Dixville Notch.

It seems their significance is more in the fact that they're one of a handful of communities that holds its votes at midnight (and certainly the largest of those communities) and often the first to report their results.

(November 3, 2021 at 3:47 pm)Rev. Rye Wrote: Looking up Dixville Notch, it doesn't seem like it was ever much of a Bellwether. The closest it came was voting for Dubya and Obama in both of their elections. Well, that and predicting the Republican candidate between 1968 and 2008 (plus 2012 if you count the Romney-Huntsman tie). And the only time I can find them overwhelmingly voting Libertarian was in 1992, but that was only because they decided to hold a Libertarian primary that year. When the general election came, Bush Sr. won overwhelmingly in Dixville Notch.

It seems their significance is more in the fact that they're one of a handful of communities that holds its votes at midnight (and certainly the largest of those communities) and often the first to report their resulats.

Yup. But oddly enough - for a number of elections however DN voted - so did the nation.....

Enough so they got regular national media attention....

Until 1992...

If that’s true, it must have stopped sometime before 1960, because I’m looking at the results history since then, and the 2000-2016 results are the longest streak I could find. And 1992 is the only election where the Libertarians scored above a major party candidate, and George H.W. Bush still beat Andre Marrou 15-5. (And Perot beat Clinton 8-2.) If you can find alternate numbers, I’d be willing to see them.