Did guns or vaccines save more lives in 2021?

[Pat Mustard]

COVID-19 vaccinations are estimated to have saved around 300'000 lives in 2021 in the USA.
According to the famous study done by Gary Kleck in 1995, guns also save around 300'000 lives each year in the USA.
So, what do you guys think, did defensive gun use or COVID-19 vaccines save more lives in 2021?

You're comparing measurable and repeatable numbers in the Covid research with numbers Kleck effectively pulled out of his arse (his metodology is awful, his protection measures against bias, false positives and other confounding variables is non-existent and his results are unreplicable). Of course Covid-19 vaccines are going to show more lives saved.

[FlatAssembler]

COVID-19 vaccinations are estimated to have saved around 300'000 lives in 2021 in the USA.
According to the famous study done by Gary Kleck in 1995, guns also save around 300'000 lives each year in the USA.
So, what do you guys think, did defensive gun use or COVID-19 vaccines save more lives in 2021?

You're comparing measurable and repeatable numbers in the Covid research with numbers Kleck effectively pulled out of his arse (his metodology is awful, his protection measures against bias, false positives and other confounding variables is non-existent and his results are unreplicable).  Of course Covid-19 vaccines are going to show more lives saved.

You think Gary Kleck's methodology is bad? Well, explain to me why do you think the methodology of the study I linked to, estimating that vaccines saved 300'000 lives in 2021 in the US alone, is good? Do you even understand their methodology? I personally don't.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

You're comparing measurable and repeatable numbers in the Covid research with numbers Kleck effectively pulled out of his arse (his metodology is awful, his protection measures against bias, false positives and other confounding variables is non-existent and his results are unreplicable).  Of course Covid-19 vaccines are going to show more lives saved.

You think Gary Kleck's methodology is bad? Well, explain to me why do you think the methodology of the study I linked to, estimating that vaccines saved 300'000 lives in 2021 in the US alone, is good? Do you even understand their methodology? I personally don't.

It’s a much simpler matter to compare deaths from COVID between the group of people vaccinated for COVID and people who weren’t. Suppose 100 people who test positive for the virus are hospitalized, 50 vaxxed and 50 unvaxxed. If 40 of the unvaxxed patients die, but only 10 of the vaxxed patients die, it’s reasonable to conclude that the COVID vaccine saved 40 lives.

Now imagine you look at 100 confrontations involving firearms, in which 50 people are killed and 50 people survive. You can’t conclude that guns saved 50 lives unless you’re able to correct for other factors that might have affected the outcome. You can’t do that in a survey. In the hospital scenario above, you’re able to do exactly that.

Boru

[Pat Mustard]

You're comparing measurable and repeatable numbers in the Covid research with numbers Kleck effectively pulled out of his arse (his metodology is awful, his protection measures against bias, false positives and other confounding variables is non-existent and his results are unreplicable).  Of course Covid-19 vaccines are going to show more lives saved.

You think Gary Kleck's methodology is bad? Well, explain to me why do you think the methodology of the study I linked to, estimating that vaccines saved 300'000 lives in 2021 in the US alone, is good? Do you even understand their methodology? I personally don't.

No I don't think it is bad, it demonstrably is bad. None of his findings are replicable.

[FlatAssembler]

You think Gary Kleck's methodology is bad? Well, explain to me why do you think the methodology of the study I linked to, estimating that vaccines saved 300'000 lives in 2021 in the US alone, is good? Do you even understand their methodology? I personally don't.

No I don't think it is bad, it demonstrably is bad.  None of his findings are replicable.

But... his findings have been replicated:

https://www.owl232.net/papers/guncontrol.htm
Fifteen surveys, excluding the one discussed in the following paragraph, have been conducted since 1976, yielding estimates of between 760,000 and 3.6 million defensive gun uses per year, the average estimate being 1.8 million.

[FlatAssembler]

It’s a much simpler matter to compare deaths from COVID between the group of people vaccinated for COVID and people who weren’t. Suppose 100 people who test positive for the virus are hospitalized, 50 vaxxed and 50 unvaxxed. If 40 of the unvaxxed patients die, but only 10 of the vaxxed patients die, it’s reasonable to conclude that the COVID vaccine saved 40 lives.

That's not remotely how it works. Vaccinated individuals mostly die at approximately the same rate as the unvaccinated individuals.
Vaccinated individuals tend to be older than the unvaccinated individuals. And an unvaccinated 75-year-old has about a thousand times more chances of dying if he catches COVID than a 20-year-old does if he catches COVID. And vaccines decrease one's chances of dying from COVID around 20 times, that is, it is as if they make you 20 years younger. A vaccinated 75-year-old has about as much chances of dying if he catches COVID as an unvaccinated 55-year-old has, which is still way more than an unvaccinated 20-year-old.

[arewethereyet]

Does age factor into that life-saving gun thing you think is a thing?

You might someday try comparing apples to apples.


'what does apples to apples mean' in 3...2...1

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

No I don't think it is bad, it demonstrably is bad.  None of his findings are replicable.

But... his findings have been replicated:

https://www.owl232.net/papers/guncontrol.htm
Fifteen surveys, excluding the one discussed in the following paragraph, have been conducted since 1976, yielding estimates of between 760,000 and 3.6 million defensive gun uses per year, the average estimate being 1.8 million.

‘Defensive gun use’ is not the same as ‘lives saved by guns’.

Boru

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

It’s a much simpler matter to compare deaths from COVID between the group of people vaccinated for COVID and people who weren’t. Suppose 100 people who test positive for the virus are hospitalized, 50 vaxxed and 50 unvaxxed. If 40 of the unvaxxed patients die, but only 10 of the vaxxed patients die, it’s reasonable to conclude that the COVID vaccine saved 40 lives.

That's not remotely how it works. Vaccinated individuals mostly die at approximately the same rate as the unvaccinated individuals.
Vaccinated individuals tend to be older than the unvaccinated individuals. And an unvaccinated 75-year-old has about a thousand times more chances of dying if he catches COVID than a 20-year-old does if he catches COVID. And vaccines decrease one's chances of dying from COVID around 20 times, that is, it is as if they make you 20 years younger. A vaccinated 75-year-old has about as much chances of dying if he catches COVID as an unvaccinated 55-year-old has, which is still way more than an unvaccinated 20-year-old.

This is why the age factor is accounted for. You can’t sensibly compare a vaccinated 75 year old to an unvaccinated 20 year old. You need to compare the death rates of vaccinated 75 year olds to unvaccinated 75 year olds.

What you’re positing is like comparing the number of humans killed by tigers in India with the number of humans killed by tigers in Brazil and concluding that Brazilian tigers are more docile.

Boru

[Nay_Sayer]

Sesame seeds killed more people than guns and COVID combined. That’s what a YouTube video told me anyway.

It's true, the mainstream media not only neglects this but Big Seed has silenced voices and has been running a propaganda show for years.


There is a reason you're not allowed to know how to actually get to sesame street.