The next Civil War

[Thumpalumpacus]

It will be akin to a campaign of terror rather than a couple of field armies going at it.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I can't shake the feeling that people predicting a second USian civil war aren't all that different from people expecting the Russia/Ukraine conflict to turn into a nuclear holocaust.

Quite frankly, any civil unrest resulting from Trump winning the White House is likely to be on the scale of the protests after the murder of George Floyd. If that.

Boru

[Nanny]

A civil war would epitomize stupidity. Think of the impact on interstate commerce or our fiat economy. Commerce would all but cease in breakaway states. Preposterous to think another civil war could happen.

[Angrboda]

Some countries slide into authoritarianism without violence. Some leave authoritarianism without violence. There are specific factors which predict which outcomes based upon prior examples, but I don't have that information handy. I don't think you can just "take the pulse" of the country and figure it out because not all volatile situations lead to conflagrations.

[Silver]

If someone doesn't get upset, it's usually because they've ignorantly taken the passive stance of "it is what it is."

I grew up rebeling against everything, though, so I never understood that mindset.

[The Grand Nudger]

I can't shake the feeling that people predicting a second USian civil war aren't all that different from people expecting the Russia/Ukraine conflict to turn into a nuclear holocaust.

Quite frankly, any civil unrest resulting from Trump winning the White House is likely to be on the scale of the protests after the murder of George Floyd. If that.

Boru

White supremacist terror attacks were there before the donald, and will be there when the donald is dead.  Maga has been radicalizing sympathizers and shifting the overton window which already included a goodly number of mass shootings every year by packs and packs of Lone Wolves™ and otherwise well functioning Very Sick Young Men™.  

We couldn't call them racists.  They weren't racists.  We couldn't call them christian dominionists - the jesus pilled freaks would never be able to coopt our government.  Now we can't point out that a reactionary terrorist ideology is the organizing principle of fully half of our nations politics and they promise to damage america if they don't get what they want. Hell, even if they do.

[Thumpalumpacus]

[...] Now we can't point out that a reactionary terrorist ideology is the organizing principle of fully half of our nations politics and they promise to damage america if they don't get what they want.  Hell, even if they do.

Especially if they do. Our democracy survived the Civil War in the 19th century -- hell, arguably came out better for the bloody experience, as with a successful surgery -- but let Trump win this election, and you will see the doctor pumping this nation full of poison while the Greek chorus sings.

[Spongebob]

I can't shake the feeling that people predicting a second USian civil war aren't all that different from people expecting the Russia/Ukraine conflict to turn into a nuclear holocaust.

Quite frankly, any civil unrest resulting from Trump winning the White House is likely to be on the scale of the protests after the murder of George Floyd. If that.

Boru

First, let me be clear that my concern about violence stems from a Trump defeat in November.  Second, I'm not predicting a civil war, I'm deeply concerned that serious violence may happen.  However, it is clear that the political divide in the US is growing deeper by the moment.

But I'm 100% hoping you are correct.  Ever since 2016 I've had to recalibrate my level of cynicism and lower my expectations with regard to politics.  I simply never expected things like Trump winning the White House, the Jan. 6th coup attempt, the numbers of Trump cultists who remain even today, the GOP blatantly turning into a White Christo-Fascist Movement.  Growing up during a period of relative political blandness must have instilled some reassurance that the USA would never tilt into authoritarian chaos, but the last 10 or so years of politics has definitely caused me to rethink that attitude.

[BrianSoddingBoru4]

I can't shake the feeling that people predicting a second USian civil war aren't all that different from people expecting the Russia/Ukraine conflict to turn into a nuclear holocaust.

Quite frankly, any civil unrest resulting from Trump winning the White House is likely to be on the scale of the protests after the murder of George Floyd. If that.

Boru

First, let me be clear that my concern about violence stems from a Trump defeat in November.  Second, I'm not predicting a civil war, I'm deeply concerned that serious violence may happen.  However, it is clear that the political divide in the US is growing deeper by the moment.

But I'm 100% hoping you are correct.  Ever since 2016 I've had to recalibrate my level of cynicism and lower my expectations with regard to politics.  I simply never expected things like Trump winning the White House, the Jan. 6th coup attempt, the numbers of Trump cultists who remain even today, the GOP blatantly turning into a White Christo-Fascist Movement.  Growing up during a period of relative political blandness must have instilled some reassurance that the USA would never tilt into authoritarian chaos, but the last 10 or so years of politics has definitely caused me to rethink that attitude.

There could very well be violence in the wake of a Trump defeat, I don’t think any sensible person could deny the possibility. But I think it’s important to keep in mind the likely scale of any possible violence. 

The last time Trump lost an election, his followers attacked the US Capitol. That attack was perpetrated by less than 2500 people, lasted less than five hours, did less than $3 million in property damage, resulted in (directly or indirectly) the deaths of just nine people, and ultimately failed to achieve its goal of overturning the election.

Shock value aside, in the annals of political violence, it was a doddle. I don’t imagine that the violence after Trump’s next loss will be any worse.

Boru

[Fireball]

^ Also, the people who would have been inclined to do so then have seen those perps fed into the courts and thence to prison. Anyone with any sense should expect the same, if they tried it next February.