What if martians invaded?

[Paleophyte]

If an alien invasion occurred, what would it mean for humanity and human civilization as we know it? How would our way of life change? Would humanity attempt to defend itself? Does civilization adapt and reorganize, or slowly fracture? I’m interested in realistic perspectives on how humanity and civilization would respond.

The answer to this would depend greatly on a vast number of unspoken assumptions about the goals and technical capabilities of the aliens.

In the end, our microbiomes would likely interact poorly, wiping out both the human race and the invaders. If they were foolish enough to send anything from Earth back to their homeworld, then they've likely doomed their entire species too. I know, not the cinematic ending most people envision, but that's what you get when you make anything other than another bad war movie with alien costumes.

[Belacqua]

No it's more a concern about how fragile complex systems are. Civilizations don’t usually collapse because of one dramatic act. They strain and lose cohesion. I wonder how people would feel about having their way of life fundamentally altered from outside without choosing it. After all, hypothetical aliens would naturally have their own way of life and would probably wish to maintain it.

This makes me think that maybe you're worried about current issues, rather than space aliens. 

A lot of people are concerned now about people from other cultures moving in and changing how their local system works. I guess the current news stories are about Somalians in Minnesota, but the issue exists in a lot of places. 

It's very hard for me to get a realistic assessment of the situation, because people who oppose immigration tend to play up the negatives, and people who are for it sometimes make excuses. 

It's starting to show up in Japan in very small way, just because Japan has been slow to allow much immigration. So far the problems are very minor, but people see reports from elsewhere and start to worry. Politicians are debating the issue here, in the hope of making conscious well-planned choices, before any larger issues arise. Whether they can come to good decisions or not remains to be seen. 

As a blue-eyed foreigner in Japan I have faced some very small but annoying prejudices ("We think you'd be more comfortable living in a neighborhood with other white people.") But I'm not the type that most people worry about when they talk about immigration.

[The Valkyrie]

If an alien invasion occurred, what would it mean for humanity and human civilization as we know it? How would our way of life change? Would humanity attempt to defend itself? Does civilization adapt and reorganize, or slowly fracture? I’m interested in realistic perspectives on how humanity and civilization would respond.

The answer to this would depend greatly on a vast number of unspoken assumptions about the goals and technical capabilities of the aliens.

In the end, our microbiomes would likely interact poorly, wiping out both the human race and the invaders. If they were foolish enough to send anything from Earth back to their homeworld, then they've likely doomed their entire species too. I know, not the cinematic ending most people envision, but that's what you get when you make anything other than another bad war movie with alien costumes.

I don't know what the concern is anyway.

We'll just upload a virus to the mothership...

[Litmus]

No it's more a concern about how fragile complex systems are. Civilizations don’t usually collapse because of one dramatic act. They strain and lose cohesion. I wonder how people would feel about having their way of life fundamentally altered from outside without choosing it. After all, hypothetical aliens would naturally have their own way of life and would probably wish to maintain it.

This makes me think that maybe you're worried about current issues, rather than space aliens. 

A lot of people are concerned now about people from other cultures moving in and changing how their local system works. I guess the current news stories are about Somalians in Minnesota, but the issue exists in a lot of places. 

It's very hard for me to get a realistic assessment of the situation, because people who oppose immigration tend to play up the negatives, and people who are for it sometimes make excuses. 

It's starting to show up in Japan in very small way, just because Japan has been slow to allow much immigration. So far the problems are very minor, but people see reports from elsewhere and start to worry. Politicians are debating the issue here, in the hope of making conscious well-planned choices, before any larger issues arise. Whether they can come to good decisions or not remains to be seen. 

As a blue-eyed foreigner in Japan I have faced some very small but annoying prejudices ("We think you'd be more comfortable living in a neighborhood with other white people.") But I'm not the type that most people worry about when they talk about immigration.

I can see why it might read that way, but I’m not trying to make a direct argument about any current case.

What you describe actually fits what I’m interested in: how societies manage change before it overwhelms them. The fact that Japan is debating it early, consciously, and at a relatively small scale seems like an example of a system trying to stay coherent rather than reactive.

I don’t think concern automatically equals hostility. It’s possible to acknowledge trade-offs, uncertainty, and limits without assuming bad faith on anyone’s part.

Large systems tend to struggle most when changes are fast, uneven, or hard to reverse. That’s true whether the source is economic, technological, cultural, or hypothetical.

Your experience in Japan actually highlights how even small differences can create friction, even when no one intends harm.

I think most people would see an alien arrival as undesirable even without hostility, simply because it would be an imposition.

We’ve organized our lives, cultures, and institutions around this planet over a very long time. It’s reasonable to feel that a settled society has some claim to continuity and self-direction, to being the ones who ultimately decide how its shared space is shaped.

Wanting that isn’t paranoia or aggression. It’s a pretty normal trait across species: a sense of belonging to a place, to a group, and of maintaining agency within it.

I don’t think anyone would be considered irrational for saying “we didn’t choose this” or for resisting an occupation, even a polite or nonviolent one. The objection could simply be about autonomy and self determination.

[Belacqua]

I don’t think concern automatically equals hostility. It’s possible to acknowledge trade-offs, uncertainty, and limits without assuming bad faith on anyone’s part.

Large systems tend to struggle most when changes are fast, uneven, or hard to reverse. That’s true whether the source is economic, technological, cultural, or hypothetical.

Yes, I think so too. If things are going pretty well, it's natural that people will want to be very careful about changes. Japan has a tendency to take a while to ponder the changes that are happening elsewhere, and then once a decision is made somehow it takes effect overnight. When I moved here, it seemed like everybody smoked and the "no smoking" signs were regularly ignored. Then all of a sudden it was banned everywhere. 

Wall Street types have been urging the Japanese government for decades to make certain changes, but politicians here act like they have to think about it for a while longer. In fact their foot-dragging has prevented some of the downward spiral that the US has gone through, so I appreciate the care they take. 

The media here probably exaggerate the scale of the problems that foreigners (other than me, of course) cause in society. Or have caused so far. But it makes sense that people are paying attention. 

When I got here I just assumed that it was my responsibility to go with the local customs, as much as is practical. The problems come when recently-arrived people insist on changes that go beyond their own living rooms. One case getting attention now is a community of Muslim people who insist on creating a special Muslim cemetery, since nearly everyone in Japan is cremated, but the Muslims say they won't go along with that and want changes to the regulations. It's not that big of a deal -- it's not like they're going to take up huge swathes of land -- but the fact that they are insisting on importing different customs means that they want to change Japan, rather than changing to fit in. 

Fortunately I have zero political power and won't have to make any of the hard decisions.

[Litmus]

I don’t think concern automatically equals hostility. It’s possible to acknowledge trade-offs, uncertainty, and limits without assuming bad faith on anyone’s part.

Large systems tend to struggle most when changes are fast, uneven, or hard to reverse. That’s true whether the source is economic, technological, cultural, or hypothetical.

Yes, I think so too. If things are going pretty well, it's natural that people will want to be very careful about changes. Japan has a tendency to take a while to ponder the changes that are happening elsewhere, and then once a decision is made somehow it takes effect overnight. When I moved here, it seemed like everybody smoked and the "no smoking" signs were regularly ignored. Then all of a sudden it was banned everywhere. 

Wall Street types have been urging the Japanese government for decades to make certain changes, but politicians here act like they have to think about it for a while longer. In fact their foot-dragging has prevented some of the downward spiral that the US has gone through, so I appreciate the care they take. 

The media here probably exaggerate the scale of the problems that foreigners (other than me, of course) cause in society. Or have caused so far. But it makes sense that people are paying attention. 

When I got here I just assumed that it was my responsibility to go with the local customs, as much as is practical. The problems come when recently-arrived people insist on changes that go beyond their own living rooms. One case getting attention now is a community of Muslim people who insist on creating a special Muslim cemetery, since nearly everyone in Japan is cremated, but the Muslims say they won't go along with that and want changes to the regulations. It's not that big of a deal -- it's not like they're going to take up huge swathes of land -- but the fact that they are insisting on importing different customs means that they want to change Japan, rather than changing to fit in. 

Fortunately I have zero political power and won't have to make any of the hard decisions.

Since you mention Japan, large numbers of foreigners moving there kind of mirrors the alien invasion scenario. If a large number of aliens invaded / occupied our planet, I think the vast majority of people would rightfully resent it. 

It's like someone moving into your house and insisting on changing the rules and rearranging the furniture to suit them. It wouldn't necessarily be an issue of hostility but more an issue of maintaining the cultural integrity of our homeland (Earth). 

Colonising an uninhabited planet wouldn't be a problem to anybody, however colonising a planet that already has its own culture and history would rub a lot of people the wrong way.

[Belacqua]

Yes, I think so too. If things are going pretty well, it's natural that people will want to be very careful about changes. Japan has a tendency to take a while to ponder the changes that are happening elsewhere, and then once a decision is made somehow it takes effect overnight. When I moved here, it seemed like everybody smoked and the "no smoking" signs were regularly ignored. Then all of a sudden it was banned everywhere. 

Wall Street types have been urging the Japanese government for decades to make certain changes, but politicians here act like they have to think about it for a while longer. In fact their foot-dragging has prevented some of the downward spiral that the US has gone through, so I appreciate the care they take. 

The media here probably exaggerate the scale of the problems that foreigners (other than me, of course) cause in society. Or have caused so far. But it makes sense that people are paying attention. 

When I got here I just assumed that it was my responsibility to go with the local customs, as much as is practical. The problems come when recently-arrived people insist on changes that go beyond their own living rooms. One case getting attention now is a community of Muslim people who insist on creating a special Muslim cemetery, since nearly everyone in Japan is cremated, but the Muslims say they won't go along with that and want changes to the regulations. It's not that big of a deal -- it's not like they're going to take up huge swathes of land -- but the fact that they are insisting on importing different customs means that they want to change Japan, rather than changing to fit in. 

Fortunately I have zero political power and won't have to make any of the hard decisions.

Since you mention Japan, large numbers of foreigners moving there kind of mirrors the alien invasion scenario. If a large number of aliens invaded / occupied our planet, I think the vast majority of people would rightfully resent it. 

It's like someone moving into your house and insisting on changing the rules and rearranging the furniture to suit them. It wouldn't necessarily be an issue of hostility but more an issue of maintaining the cultural integrity of our homeland (Earth). 

Colonising an uninhabited planet wouldn't be a problem to anybody, however colonising a planet that already has its own culture and history would rub a lot of people the wrong way.

If the space aliens brought some kind of ultra-high-tech dental device that fixed all your teeth so you never had to go to the dentist again, I think I'd be glad they visited. 

But you're right, if they insisted on changing things we'd want to be pretty careful about what that led to. 

Have you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's essay on why an intransigent minority changes the culture for everyone? 

https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-into...1f83ce4e15

I like to think that my presence in Japan brings a little bit of added value (my classes remain popular) without interfering with the lifestyle. And on neighborhood clean-up day I've established myself as the guy who's in charge of lifting up the heavy grating and cleaning the little drainage culvert. So I appear useful to some people, anyway.

[Litmus]

Since you mention Japan, large numbers of foreigners moving there kind of mirrors the alien invasion scenario. If a large number of aliens invaded / occupied our planet, I think the vast majority of people would rightfully resent it. 

It's like someone moving into your house and insisting on changing the rules and rearranging the furniture to suit them. It wouldn't necessarily be an issue of hostility but more an issue of maintaining the cultural integrity of our homeland (Earth). 

Colonising an uninhabited planet wouldn't be a problem to anybody, however colonising a planet that already has its own culture and history would rub a lot of people the wrong way.

If the space aliens brought some kind of ultra-high-tech dental device that fixed all your teeth so you never had to go to the dentist again, I think I'd be glad they visited. 

But you're right, if they insisted on changing things we'd want to be pretty careful about what that led to. 

Have you read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's essay on why an intransigent minority changes the culture for everyone? 

https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-into...1f83ce4e15

I like to think that my presence in Japan brings a little bit of added value (my classes remain popular) without interfering with the lifestyle. And on neighborhood clean-up day I've established myself as the guy who's in charge of lifting up the heavy grating and cleaning the little drainage culvert. So I appear useful to some people, anyway.

The article seems to highlight something important about how change happens in large systems.

In the alien thought experiment, there’s an assumption that sheer numbers or intentions alone determine impact. But this article underscores that impact also comes from persistence and structural asymmetries, not just majority rule.

Even if an external group arrived without hostility, the mere fact that they are present, persistent, and integrated into the environment could shift how the rest of the society operates. That’s because complex systems don’t behave like simple head-counts; they react to patterns of behavior and commitments that don’t easily reverse.

So it’s not just “do they mean well?” It’s whether a society can maintain its existing way of life when faced with persistent external influence. If a small but resolute presence has the power to reorganize choices and defaults over time, then it makes sense that most people would find the prospect of an imposed change undesirable, even absent hostility.

If a hypothetical arrival could reshape how people live at the systemic level just by being here and persistent, do you think most humans would be comfortable with that, or would they reasonably try to maintain their own way of life?

[Nay_Sayer]

A silly notion. Everyone knows Vulcans made the first contact with Earth

[Belacqua]

If a hypothetical arrival could reshape how people live at the systemic level just by being here and persistent, do you think most humans would be comfortable with that, or would they reasonably try to maintain their own way of life?

Well, if we're talking space aliens, then the question is wide open, because we have no idea what they'd be like. I mean, what if they are too small to be seen and subsist entirely by consuming harmful viruses. Some pharmaceutical companies might lose money but I don't see how other people would be much changed by it, except by being healthier. 

But to extrapolate from known experience, we have to talk about human immigrants. And here of course we get into all kind of ideological and other issues. 

I'm sure you're right that there is a tipping point at which the presence of non-native people would change a society in noticeable ways. Taleb's essay indicates that the tipping point might arrive earlier than we'd imagined -- well before the population reached 50%. And of course different places absorb people differently. The New York borough of Queens, for example, when I lived there seemed as if it was entirely made up of recent arrivals. In the stores on my block people would greet me in Greek and seem surprised if I didn't understand. But other cities, which have traditionally been more homogenous, would feel the influx more strongly. 

It's hard for me to know about the real situation in Europe now, or about the cities in England which (some people say) are not what they used to be. It seems likely to me that some people are exaggerating -- for example when they claim that large areas of Sweden are now lawless zones where the police don't dare enter. But I haven't been there in a while, and I know a lot of people have moved in. I saw a photo of Paris recently, where everyone on the street was black and dressed as though they were in Nigeria. I don't know what street it was, but the architecture was Haussmann-era classic Parisian, so it was clearly the heart of the city. Naturally I think people should be able to move to Paris if they want to, and dress however they want. But I can understand that someone who grew up there, and feels that Paris had a unique culture worth preserving, would not feel at home any more. Something has been lost. 

I suppose all we can do is recognize the inevitable -- everything changes. The things we like won't last. The people who change it are not malicious, they are just different. πάντα ῥεῖ.