Historical Standpoint

[robvalue]

Just for completeness, the argument that an event was caused by such and such because you (or other people you ask) can't come up with/can't imagine another explanation is a very common error in thinking. It's calling the argument from ignorance/incredulity, where you assume an answer is correct without justification, and then expect others to prove you wrong.

At best you have shown that your explanation can't be proved right or wrong, you haven't established which it actually is. And the same argument works for any explanation that can't readily be proved wrong, thus "proving" multiple contradictory explanations.

This error in thinking is amazingly common. Anyone who cares about proper arguments instead of pointless deflections would do well to understand these things.

I have a (hopefully) user friendly guide on my website here which helps you identify and understand many common errors in thinking. Please ask if anything is unclear.