(March 13, 2016 at 1:48 pm)robvalue Wrote: Of course, that's what probability is. It's about chances. It's not meant to guarantee anything. But you play the odds, if you prefer winning.

Not necessarily. In this case, I wouldn't. If there were more options involved, then I would consider switching on principle. As it is, though, I'm more comfortable trusting my instincts wherever they take me.

You would trust your instincts over an exact mathematical model? OK.

I don't know Panda. People are trying to use intuition to do maths. It doesn't work.

(March 13, 2016 at 2:40 pm)robvalue Wrote: You would trust your instincts over an exact mathematical model? OK.

I don't know Panda. People are trying to use intuition to do maths. It doesn't work.

It isn't exact, unless you have an army of candidates who are going to play the game and you're betting on their overall success --- and not even then, but it's better than nothing. When you're playing the game yourself, however, and only once, then these chances are not much help and it's debatable whether you should go with the switch strategy or not. Technically speaking, you do have a "better chance" going with it, but it's small enough that you might choose to not switch after all.

You see, sometimes it's better to go against the odds. It takes guts, anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9TRMQwMNnY

Sorry, I felt like posting this... I'l grab my coat.

Sometimes it's better to go against the odds?

By definition that's not true, unless you are trying to lose. But I'll leave you to your unorthodox strategies.

And yes, it's an exact probability model. All you need to execute it is a random number generator like a die yourself, and it will be accurate.

Of course it doesn't predict the future, because it's probability.

(March 13, 2016 at 3:01 pm)robvalue Wrote: Sometimes it's better to go against the odds?

By definition that's not true, unless you are trying to lose. But I'll leave you to your unorthodox strategies.

And yes, it's an exact probability model. All you need to execute it is a random number generator like a die yourself, and it will be accurate.

Of course it doesn't predict the future, because it's probability.

Again, you're playing the game only once. The 2/3 chance is insignificant to say the least. You seem to be dogmatically opposed to the idea that someone might not want to take them. That's your problem, not mine. But do mind your own business as far as personal choices are involved. I might as well tell you I'll go against the odds in a 99/100 scenario - how does it concern you, exactly?

OK, OK. I have it. Because Monty will pick the door without the car it means the one he did not pick, probably has the car.

Choices left for Monty;

car goat - This means we have a goat and the other door has the car.

goat car - This means we have a goat and the other door has the car.

goat goat - This means we have a car and the other door has the goat.

Need to pick the other door.

I've never had anyone get so angry about probability before.

When I've taught it in the past, if I got any signs of life out of my students I was doing well.

The probability of picking a 1 car from behind 3 doors is always 33%, it doesn't matter if 100 people play the game and guess right 100 times, each game is independent and every contestant starts with a 33% chance of picking right. Using the coin flip analogy, if you flip a coin 10 times and it lands on heads 9 times does that mean that the probability of flipping a coin and having it land on heads is 90%? Of course not its a 50/50 probability.

(March 13, 2016 at 4:16 pm)Probvalue Wrote: I've never had anyone get so angry about probability before.

When I've taught it in the past, if I got any signs of life out of my students I was doing well.

It's the Internet.

People get angry over font choices, and a font colors, or even the word font.

Edit: for some reason on my iPad it changed your name to 'Probvalue'. Thought that was awesomely accidental. ^_^