(March 13, 2016 at 8:44 pm)TheRealJoeFish Wrote: Yeah I think ep's trolling now. He's saying two things essentially: 1) the laws of probability only work if you assume that the person doesn't have a way to make them not work (I don't know what this could possibly mean... esp? X-ray vision?) and 2) it's rude of us to want him to have a better chance of winning because the comfort he gets from going with his gut is worth more than 1/3*((value of car)-(value of goat)).

I refuse to believe anyone could seriously propound those two viewpoints consecutively

I think what he's trying to say is that sometimes you'll lose even when playing the odds, so in those instances you should have not played the odds.

This makes no sense though. You're trying to guess the times when the lesser option will win, and each time you guess you're most likely to get it wrong. Because it's the lesser option.

It's like the mistake people make in poker when they base whether or not their play was right on whether the card they need gets turned over. A bad play is a bad play, but sometimes you get lucky.

Nobody is claiming that you will every time if you change doors though, so I don't understand.

I honestly thought this 'problem' was very easy. I admit the first time it was introduced to me I chose to stick, until I sat back and thought about it and someone did the probability tree with me and I saw that the 50/50 choice was an illusion.

Oh well. At least we've got pool on our side now ^_^ GJ dude.

Yeah. I sense some fundamental misunderstandings of probability.

The national lottery thrives on people having a really bad grasp of probability.

(March 14, 2016 at 5:13 am)Pandæmonium Wrote: Nobody is claiming that you will every time if you change doors though, so I don't understand.

I honestly thought this 'problem' was very easy. I admit the first time it was introduced to me I chose to stick, until I sat back and thought about it and someone did the probability tree with me and I saw that the 50/50 choice was an illusion.

Oh well. At least we've got pool on our side now ^_^ GJ dude.

I thought the 'problem' was easy as well, until I realised that it's all based on what Monty does. If you don't know that he always opens a Goat then all bets are off. If you were the first contestant on his show and believed he was randomly selecting a door then it'd give you no advantage to switch - and if you thought that he would have opened the car if he could have then it means you must have selected the car. Most of the time a game-show is going on the contestants have no idea how the host selects anything. If they know, for example, that the host will try to give them hard questions then when the host asks "what are your favourite trivia categories" they should say "mind your own fucking business, Monty" or give a list of shit they know nothing at all about. If they know that's how he plays that is.

So the original answer the question is "no, there's no benefit to switch unless you have reliable information that Monty never opens the door to the prize immediately".

That is true, but it would be pretty dumb if he just gave you the car. The problem is meant to include this proviso.

Unlike you guys I didn't think the problem was easy.
I did think hard about it sadly it took me some time for the problem to *click*.

The answer is simple.

*switching is beneficial only if you initially chose a door behind which there is a goat.

*since the probability of choosing a goat initially, before any door is opened its higher, you have a higher probability of choosing a door behind which is a goat.

*profit.


The problem I faced was thinking that the probability of having chosen a goat initially was 50-50 after Monty opens a door and shows a goat behind it.

Nice work pool, I admire you giving it serious thought

It is very, very counter intuitive. I'm a dab hand at probability, but it suckered me right in first time I saw it. The door opening is a kind of misdirection; it doesn't tell you what it appears to tell you, because of the way that monty fucker has to choose.

I've got a really hard probability question if anyone is interested. Maybe I should do another thread for it. I've as yet not been able to solve it. That is very embarresing for me to admit!

(March 14, 2016 at 5:32 am)robvalue Wrote: Nice work pool, I admire you giving it serious thought

It is very, very counter intuitive. I'm a dab hand at probability, but it suckered me right in first time I saw it. The door opening is a kind of misdirection; it doesn't tell you what it appears to tell you, because of the way that monty fucker has to choose.

I've got a really hard probability question if anyone is interested. Maybe I should do another thread for it. I've as yet not been able to solve it. That is very embarresing for me to admit!

Post that fuckmothering problem. Start a thread or do whatever necessary, I want to solve it alive.

Lol ok!

(March 14, 2016 at 5:20 am)Aractus Wrote:

(March 14, 2016 at 5:13 am)Pandæmonium Wrote: Nobody is claiming that you will every time if you change doors though, so I don't understand.

I honestly thought this 'problem' was very easy. I admit the first time it was introduced to me I chose to stick, until I sat back and thought about it and someone did the probability tree with me and I saw that the 50/50 choice was an illusion.

Oh well. At least we've got pool on our side now ^_^ GJ dude.

I thought the 'problem' was easy as well, until I realised that it's all based on what Monty does. If you don't know that he always opens a Goat then all bets are off. If you were the first contestant on his show and believed he was randomly selecting a door then it'd give you no advantage to switch - and if you thought that he would have opened the car if he could have then it means you must have selected the car. Most of the time a game-show is going on the contestants have no idea how the host selects anything. If they know, for example, that the host will try to give them hard questions then when the host asks "what are your favourite trivia categories" they should say "mind your own fucking business, Monty" or give a list of shit they know nothing at all about. If they know that's how he plays that is.

So the original answer the question is "no, there's no benefit to switch unless you have reliable information that Monty never opens the door to the prize immediately".

I agree, but the Monty Hall problem never once stipulates he will open the door with the car. He always opens up the door with the/ a goat.