So I've heard all sorts of things from all sorts of people on both sides of the Stay/Leave line, when it comes to the consequences of the Leave decision.

My question is, how long will it be until we will start seeing the 'real' consequences? Because I know the pound fell pretty harshly, but of course that's 'just the short term reaction' and not a real consequence (or so I've been told). The excuse that the immediate chaos following the vote obscures our perception is something I can buy, but when will the dust settle? At what point do we decide things are back to a new 'normal' and we can look back on the Brexit vote and draw lines to its consequences?

(July 1, 2016 at 10:18 am)FatAndFaithless Wrote: So I've heard all sorts of things from all sorts of people on both sides of the Stay/Leave line, when it comes to the consequences of the Leave decision.  

My question is, how long will it be until we will start seeing the 'real' consequences?  Because I know the pound fell pretty harshly, but of course that's 'just the short term reaction' and not a real consequence (or so I've been told).  The excuse that the immediate chaos following the vote obscures our perception is something I can buy, but when will the dust settle?  At what point do we decide things are back to a new 'normal' and we can look back on the Brexit vote and draw lines to its consequences?

I'm going to guess that should be 1 or 2 years after the exit itself.... compared with 2015.

For now, apart from the speculation, it's business as usual.

(July 1, 2016 at 10:18 am)FatAndFaithless Wrote: So I've heard all sorts of things from all sorts of people on both sides of the Stay/Leave line, when it comes to the consequences of the Leave decision.  

These already are the real consequences. If anything, matters will get more complicated and possibly worse when article 50 is actually invoked. All treaties have to be renegotiated, the international relationships have to be redifined. Starting with immigration and ending with duties. That in itself won't provide reason for the global economy putting much trust into how the UK handles matters. Two major rating agencies already downgraded Britain, probably for all of the above.

You guys didn't think this whole thing out, did you?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-r...m-36682735

Quote:At the EU summit this week the 27 government leaders - without the UK - agreed Brexit "divorce" talks should begin and end before any talks on a new settlement for the UK, Chris Morris says.
Brussels sources told our correspondent there was a real determination among the leaders not to mix the two.
The statement from the 27 said they wanted the UK to be "a close partner of the EU". But they also spoke of an agreement to be "concluded with the UK as a third country".

The devil is always in the details!

(July 1, 2016 at 10:18 am)FatAndFaithless Wrote: So I've heard all sorts of things from all sorts of people on both sides of the Stay/Leave line, when it comes to the consequences of the Leave decision.  

My question is, how long will it be until we will start seeing the 'real' consequences? [...]

Well - first UK must 'really' decide to leave EU and enact Article 50. Then - there will be at least 2 years of the departure process. And  even after that's over, a lot will depend on what trade deals UK is able to secure in the near future.  But while all this goes on, what's really going to hurt UK in terms of economy is the uncertainty and resulting reluctance of international business to invest.

(July 1, 2016 at 10:59 am)Minimalist Wrote: You guys didn't think this whole thing out, did you?

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-r...m-36682735

Quote:At the EU summit this week the 27 government leaders - without the UK - agreed Brexit "divorce" talks should begin and end before any talks on a new settlement for the UK, Chris Morris says.
Brussels sources told our correspondent there was a real determination among the leaders not to mix the two.
The statement from the 27 said they wanted the UK to be "a close partner of the EU". But they also spoke of an agreement to be "concluded with the UK as a third country".

The devil is always in the details!

If she's right, I'll take a bite out of my own shit.

(July 1, 2016 at 11:01 am)SofaKingHigh Wrote: If she's right, I'll take a bite out of my own shit.

Sofa, this is already happening. And they can't react any differently, since providing sweet deals would encourage their own nationalists further. As of now, the UK is pretty much in Limbo. Excluded from decision making but still part of the union, as long as article 50 isn't invoked. And even after that it's years of insecurity until new deals are up for negotiation.

(July 1, 2016 at 11:05 am)abaris Wrote:

(July 1, 2016 at 11:01 am)SofaKingHigh Wrote: If she's right, I'll take a bite out of my own shit.

Sofa, this is already happening. And they can't react any differently, since providing sweet deals would encourage their own nationalists further.

No, no it isn't, as no negotiating has started matey.

If she's right, the UK, after leaving the EU, will be trading with the EU on WTO tariffs, we are the EU's biggest customer, the trade deficit is huge mate.  If we're trading at WTO tariffs, the EU will be plunged into recession, as will we probably.

There will almost certainly be some kind of interim deal, if there isn't, we're all fucked.

(July 1, 2016 at 11:09 am)SofaKingHigh Wrote: There will almost certainly be some kind of interim deal, if there isn't, we're all fucked.

Why do you expect that? The exisitng deals will continue until article 50 is invoked, thus starting the seperation process. The longer this takes, the longer the markets will react unpredictable. Once article 50 is invoked, negotiations may start. What they said today is, that there's no room for sweet deals anymore. For now, until article 50 is invoked, the UK is still a member and there's nothing to renegotiate. But they also made clear that the UK and whoever may be at the helm, won't take the flight home with another cherry in their pockets and that they won't have any kind of influence on EU decisions.

Seems to me that it is in the EU's best interest to make an example of Britain, right now.