(September 24, 2017 at 10:54 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: News here is reporting that AFD will garner enough votes for parliamentary seats. Let's hope they don't seat many.

(September 24, 2017 at 8:53 am)downbeatplumb Wrote: Indeed the Germans have a history of not always voting in the best person as chancellor........

*sigh*

It was clear from the polls that they get scary many seats, and they did - they are the third largest force in parliament now, an absolutely stunning and historic result.

The theory is that the social democrats deliberately stay in the opposition such that the government coalition and the social democrats in the opposition can outleverage the fucking cryptonazis in all important situations to effectively neutralize them.

Coalitions are inherently weak.

(September 24, 2017 at 4:54 pm)Minimalist Wrote: Coalitions are inherently weak.

They are the norm in Germany. We're used to the MO. Usually the two parties are close enough to work productively. The three party coalition if it happens will be a challenge though.

(September 24, 2017 at 8:53 am)downbeatplumb Wrote:

(September 24, 2017 at 8:13 am)Alex K Wrote: I thought I'd mention it. AM will very likely remain in charge, the question is whether it will be in a coalition with the social democrats or the neoliberals. The green party joining in would not be completely out of the question as they have done that at the state level already. The other question is how many seats the cryptonazis will get. They have an unnerving 12% in recent polls.

Indeed the Germans have a history of not always voting in the best person as chancellor........

We're still a stable enough democracy that the right wing extremists have no chance in hell to actually govern for the time being. And Merkel is just an ordinary centrist politician with a bit too much of an ear for the industry lobby, nothing you would compare to a dictator.

(September 24, 2017 at 4:53 pm)Alex K Wrote:

(September 24, 2017 at 10:54 am)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: News here is reporting that AFD will garner enough votes for parliamentary seats. Let's hope they don't seat many.


*sigh*

It was clear from the polls that they get scary many seats, and they did - they are the third largest force in parliament now, an absolutely stunning and historic result.  

The theory is that the social democrats deliberately stay in the opposition such that the government coalition and the social democrats in the opposition can outleverage the fucking cryptonazis in all important situations to effectively neutralize them.

Yeah, on the way home, listening to BBC, it was reported that they'll have 93 seats or so. That is a sizeable minority.

It seems to me that the sensible coalition with its allies can ensure that no AfD planks may pass legislative muster; but the large showing they made, with its inroads on centrist support, is something that I see as both surprising and worrisome. Surprising because our media here, in what little coverage it's given to your polling there, clearly underestimated and therefore underreported the amount of support AfD has (shades of our American 2016 campaign there), and worrisome because especially after Brexit, the Germans have seemed to be the sensible ones in Europe.

At least you guys didn't elect a Trumpian Chancellor -- there's that.

(September 24, 2017 at 5:07 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote: At least you guys didn't elect a Trumpian Chancellor -- there's that.

Well, ever looked at angie's hairdo? it kinda looks trumpesque.

Coalitions force to compromise and not totalitarian legislation. Its a good thing.

(September 24, 2017 at 4:54 pm)Minimalist Wrote: Coalitions are inherently weak.

They are. They force the politicians to actually do something and negotiate legislation. I get this is an alien concept to an USian.

In some ways I think the Parliamentary system is superior to the the U.S. system. If we had a Parliament Trump would be out on his ass.

(September 24, 2017 at 5:24 pm)chimp3 Wrote: In some ways I think the Parliamentary system is superior to the the U.S. system. If we had a Parliament Trump would be out on his ass.

The Americans themselves helped set up the system in Germany after WWII as a compromise to have a relatively weak leader and yet a stable government, in order to prevent another Machtergreifung. They didn't have the wisdom to take some of the lessons learned from the failure of the first German republic home with them, and Trump is the result of that.

(September 24, 2017 at 4:54 pm)Minimalist Wrote: Coalitions are inherently weak.

Not always. If all parties agree a common set of goals before forming a coalition and the biggest party manages to not think it's governing on its own then they work, often very well.

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(September 24, 2017 at 5:07 pm)Thumpalumpacus Wrote:

(September 24, 2017 at 4:53 pm)Alex K Wrote: It was clear from the polls that they get scary many seats, and they did - they are the third largest force in parliament now, an absolutely stunning and historic result.  

The theory is that the social democrats deliberately stay in the opposition such that the government coalition and the social democrats in the opposition can outleverage the fucking cryptonazis in all important situations to effectively neutralize them.

Yeah, on the way home, listening to BBC, it was reported that they'll have 93 seats or so. That is a sizeable minority.

It seems to me that the sensible coalition with its allies can ensure that no AfD planks may pass legislative muster; but the large showing they made, with its inroads on centrist support, is something that I see as both surprising and worrisome. Surprising because our media here, in what little coverage it's given to your polling there, clearly underestimated and therefore underreported the amount of support AfD has (shades of our American 2016 campaign there), and worrisome because especially after Brexit, the Germans have seemed to be the sensible ones in Europe.

At least you guys didn't elect a Trumpian Chancellor -- there's that.

A big part of their success this election is that voters in Europe are sick of the orthodoxy, i.e. corporatist neoliberalism, yet the big party with the best chance of actually capitalising on this, the SDP (the heirs to the Socialists), are still wedded to the Bliarite "Third Way", which is essentially pursue Thatherite (in the US Raygunite) policies while tinkering with a few social policies on the edge to retain the pretence of a human face.