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**mlmooney89** · October 17, 2017 at 12:51 pm

(October 17, 2017 at 12:36 pm)pocaracas Wrote:

It is because, at first, your chance of hitting the right door is 1/3. So, if you stick with you originally chosen door, you have a 1/3 probability of being right.
When the guy gives you the option to switch, you automagically have 2/3 chance to get the right door.

An equivalent way to see it is to imagine you have 100 doors from where to choose.
You pick one and then the guy opens 98 doors that don't have the prize, leaving your door and another one closed. Should you switch your bet to that other door?
What are the chances that you got the door right on your first attempt? 1/100.
Now that you've been shown that 98 other doors have no prize, is the other door that the guy left closed the one with the prize, or yours?

~~Edwardo Piet~~ · October 17, 2017 at 12:52 pm

(October 17, 2017 at 12:36 pm)pocaracas Wrote:
(October 17, 2017 at 11:25 am)mlmooney89 Wrote: I don't know what that means! lol

I swear I have a love hate relationship with this stuff. It drives me crazy and I never get the answer but I love the process. I've tried so just tell me :p

(October 17, 2017 at 11:43 am)Losty Wrote: I know there's an advantage to switching because there's a thread about this, but I'll never understand why.

It is because, at first, your chance of hitting the right door is 1/3. So, if you stick with you originally chosen door, you have a 1/3 probability of being right.
When the guy gives you the option to switch, you automagically have 2/3 chance to get the right door.

An equivalent way to see it is to imagine you have 100 doors from where to choose.
You pick one and then the guy opens 98 doors that don't have the prize, leaving your door and another one closed. Should you switch your bet to that other door?
What are the chances that you got the door right on your first attempt? 1/100.
Now that you've been shown that 98 other doors have no prize, is the other door that the guy left closed the one with the prize, or yours?

Wait is this the Monty Hall problem? That's my favorite problem ever.

FatAndFaithless · (This post was last modified: October 17, 2017 at 1:06 pm by FatAndFaithless.)

Oooh the Monty Hall Problem is a great one.

~~Edwardo Piet~~ · (This post was last modified: October 17, 2017 at 1:20 pm by Edwardo Piet.)

**Whateverist** · (This post was last modified: October 17, 2017 at 1:52 pm by Whateverist.)

(October 17, 2017 at 4:42 am)notimportant1234 Wrote: Searched the 3 problem on the internet , if you take in consideration that you have unlimited water it is easy.

It can be. If you want to show how you'd do it, put your solution in hide tags: [hide] at the beginning, and the same at the end, except with a "/" between the "[" and the "h".

notimportant1234 · (This post was last modified: October 17, 2017 at 2:23 pm by notimportant1234.)

You have only two buckets, one holds exactly 4 gallons of water and the other exactly 7 gallons. Neither bucket contains any markings on it. Using just these two buckets how can you bring back exactly 5 gallons of water?

**mlmooney89** · October 17, 2017 at 3:22 pm

I'm going to throw a tantrum cause I don't get it.

Is the first door opened and revealing a goat? If so how do you turn around and get 2/3 from two doors? There is one goat left and one car. You can flip a coin and pick one. Please someone explain it to me because the pictures FatAndFaithless posted make it seem like the door stayed shut.

~~Edwardo Piet~~ · October 17, 2017 at 3:36 pm

I will try my best to explain it:

**mlmooney89** · October 17, 2017 at 3:41 pm

(October 17, 2017 at 3:36 pm)Hammy Wrote: I will try my best to explain it:

When you are shown a goat you know you won't switch to that goat. You are asked if you want to switch the other other door. That other door either is the car or it's the other goat. That's a 1/2 chance. But if you stay on the car you are right 1/3 times because there are two other goats. So abstractly staying on the car is like allowing yourself to risk getting a third goat but switching is like avoiding that goat.

The way that makes it easiest for me is to think like this: If I stay on the car I will be right 1 in 3 times... but if it's NOT the car (which is 2 out of 3 times) then switching will DEFINITELY be the car.

There's a 1 in 3 chance that the current door is the car. You know one of the doors isn't the car. And you also know that you won't switch to that door. So if the current door is not the car (which is a 2 in 3 chance) then the other door is definitely the car.

I hope some of the things I have said is helpful

But I thought we knew we were on a goat... Is the damn door open or closed? lol Are we saying the last third is the option to stay where we are?

~~Edwardo Piet~~ · October 17, 2017 at 3:51 pm

(October 17, 2017 at 3:41 pm)mlmooney89 Wrote:
(October 17, 2017 at 3:36 pm)Hammy Wrote: I will try my best to explain it:

When you are shown a goat you know you won't switch to that goat. You are asked if you want to switch the other other door. That other door either is the car or it's the other goat. That's a 1/2 chance. But if you stay on the car you are right 1/3 times because there are two other goats. So abstractly staying on the car is like allowing yourself to risk getting a third goat but switching is like avoiding that goat.

The way that makes it easiest for me is to think like this: If I stay on the car I will be right 1 in 3 times... but if it's NOT the car (which is 2 out of 3 times) then switching will DEFINITELY be the car.

There's a 1 in 3 chance that the current door is the car. You know one of the doors isn't the car. And you also know that you won't switch to that door. So if the current door is not the car (which is a 2 in 3 chance) then the other door is definitely the car.

I hope some of the things I have said is helpful

But I thought we knew we were on a goat... Is the damn door open or closed? lol Are we saying the last third is the option to stay where we are?

No we don't know if we're on a goat or a car. One other door is opened and revealed to be a goat. We are asked if we want to switch to the third and final door or stay on the first door.

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